THE DECISION LEDGER
LEDGER CONNECTEDWorld Events
Real-world forecasts recorded before the outcome, locked against later edits, and resolved from declared official sources.
HOW IT WORKSContract → forecast → lock → official result → score
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AI VS MARKET2 frozen pairs · 0 scored
Verified market prices are captured every five minutes. A fresh quote and complete AI panel are frozen at the evidence cutoff. Open an event to inspect its comparison.
OPEN RECORD
17 questionsUpcoming and awaiting resolution
Will JOLTS job openings be at least 7.0 million? BLS release: September 2026.
TORK PROBABILITY81%RESOLVESSep 29, 11:00 AM PDT
GPT67%Claude71%Gemini99%Grok85%
Will JOLTS quits be at least 3.0 million? BLS release: September 2026.
TORK PROBABILITY85%RESOLVESSep 29, 11:00 AM PDT
GPT72%Claude78%Gemini92%Grok96%
Will total nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 100,000? BLS release: October 2026.
TORK PROBABILITY41%RESOLVESOct 2, 9:30 AM PDT
GPT28%Claude43%Gemini45%Grok48%
Will the unemployment rate be at least 4.0%? BLS release: October 2026.
TORK PROBABILITY89%RESOLVESOct 2, 9:30 AM PDT
GPT87%Claude95%Gemini90%Grok82%
Will CPI-U all-items rise at least 0.2% month over month? BLS release: October 2026.
TORK PROBABILITY58%RESOLVESOct 14, 9:30 AM PDT
GPT65%Claude66%Gemini55%Grok47%
Will core CPI-U rise at least 0.2% month over month? BLS release: October 2026.
TORK PROBABILITY67%RESOLVESOct 14, 9:30 AM PDT
GPT69%Claude72%Gemini75%Grok52%
Will final-demand PPI rise at least 0.2% month over month? BLS release: October 2026.
TORK PROBABILITY61%RESOLVESOct 15, 9:30 AM PDT
GPT62%Claude66%Gemini65%Grok50%
Will final-demand PPI less foods, energy, and trade services rise at least 0.2% month over month? BLS release: October 2026.
TORK PROBABILITY67%RESOLVESOct 15, 9:30 AM PDT
GPT65%Claude76%Gemini75%Grok50%
Will JOLTS job openings be at least 7.0 million? BLS release: November 2026.
TORK PROBABILITY62%RESOLVESNov 3, 11:00 AM PST
GPT69%Claude60%Gemini60%Grok58%
Will JOLTS quits be at least 3.0 million? BLS release: November 2026.
TORK PROBABILITY74%RESOLVESNov 3, 11:00 AM PST
GPT63%Claude78%Gemini75%Grok78%
Will the unemployment rate be at least 4.0%? BLS release: November 2026.
TORK PROBABILITY—RESOLVESNov 6, 9:30 AM PST
Will total nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 100,000? BLS release: November 2026.
TORK PROBABILITY—RESOLVESNov 6, 9:30 AM PST
Will CPI-U all-items rise at least 0.2% month over month? BLS release: November 2026.
TORK PROBABILITY—RESOLVESNov 10, 9:30 AM PST
Will core CPI-U rise at least 0.2% month over month? BLS release: November 2026.
TORK PROBABILITY—RESOLVESNov 10, 9:30 AM PST
Will final-demand PPI less foods, energy, and trade services rise at least 0.2% month over month? BLS release: November 2026.
TORK PROBABILITY—RESOLVESNov 13, 9:30 AM PST
Will final-demand PPI rise at least 0.2% month over month? BLS release: November 2026.
TORK PROBABILITY—RESOLVESNov 13, 9:30 AM PST
Will Apple report fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter total net sales of at least $105.0 billion?
TORK PROBABILITY—RESOLVESNov 15, 3:59 PM PST
RESOLVED RECORD
6 questionsScored outcomes
Will final-demand PPI rise at least 0.2% month over month? BLS release: September 2026.
TORK PROBABILITY—OUTCOMEYES
Will final-demand PPI less foods, energy, and trade services rise at least 0.2% month over month? BLS release: September 2026.
TORK PROBABILITY68%OUTCOMEYES
GPT47%Claude78%Gemini75%Grok71%
Will the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report that the seasonally adjusted CPI-U all-items index increased by at least 0.2% in August 2026?
TORK PROBABILITY54%OUTCOMEYES
GPT57%Claude61%Gemini55%Grok42%
Will core CPI-U rise at least 0.2% month over month? BLS release: September 2026.
TORK PROBABILITY68%OUTCOMEYES
GPT69%Claude79%Gemini75%Grok50%
Will CPI-U all-items rise at least 0.2% month over month? BLS release: September 2026.
TORK PROBABILITY57%OUTCOMEYES
GPT67%Claude62%Gemini45%Grok55%
Will The Pitt win Outstanding Drama Series at the 78th Emmy Awards?
TORK PROBABILITY27%OUTCOMENO
GPT12%Claude43%Gemini2%Grok50%
Missing forecasts remain missing. Failed runs do not count as locks. Only the latest complete run with a confirmed ledger state can appear as the event forecast.
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