VERIFIED PERFORMANCE

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No revisions.

Every eligible MLB forecast is timestamped before first pitch, locked, and graded against the official result. Shadow forecasts are analytical probabilities—not betting picks.

AUDITED ACCURACY—0/200 eligible prospective games · performance claims disabled

VALIDATION PHASE — NOT YET PERFORMANCE VERIFIEDHistorical reconstructions do not count toward the 200-game prospective gate. Market comparison unavailable.

FORECASTS1414 directional estimates

LOCKED0Immutable pregame records

GRADED0Official outcomes only

ACCURACY—Not shown until results exist

BRIER SCORE—Lower is better

LOG LOSS—Confidence-sensitive

DECISION DISCIPLINE

What the model said

Shadow validation

LEAN9Directional threshold cleared

PASS5No actionable directional edge

WITHHELD0Required evidence unavailable

AUDIT LEDGER

First results pending

0 graded

No audited MLB outcomes yet

Forecasts will lock automatically within 30 minutes of first pitch. Grading begins after official results arrive.

LEAKAGE-SAFE RECONSTRUCTION

Historical model audit

1 completed dates · separate from live validation

ELIGIBLE GAMES1515 attempted

ACCURACY46.7%Winner classification

BRIER SCORE0.245Probability quality

LOG LOSS0.683Confidence-sensitive

Calibration by probability band

BandGamesAvg. forecastAccuracy

50–54.99%552.3%20.0%

55–59.99%657.2%50.0%

60–64.99%160.3%100.0%

65–69.99%366.3%66.7%

70–75%0——

Results by data completeness

QualityGamesAccuracyBrier

0–690——

70–840——

85–1001546.7%0.245

MODEL VERSIONmlb-structured-estimate-v0.2.0

IMMUTABILITYPregame snapshots cannot be edited

MARKET CLAIMSUnavailable until licensed odds are connected

The record.No revisions.

Calibration by probability band

Results by data completeness

The record.
No revisions.