Will final-demand PPI less foods, energy, and trade services rise at least 0.2% month over month? BLS release: September 2026.

Resolution depends on the BLS-reported seasonally adjusted one-month percent change for final-demand PPI less foods, energy, and trade services in the September 2026 release. Using only the provided official history for series WPSFD49116, the recent month-over-month changes are approximately: Aug 2024 +0.19%, Sep 2024 +0.19%, Oct 2024 +0.23%, Nov 2024 +0.13%, Dec 2024 +0.32%, Jan 2025 +0.42%, Feb 2025 +0.42%, Mar 2025 +0.12%, Apr 2025 -0.18%, May 2025 +0.14%, Jun 2025 +0.15%, Jul 2025 +0.68%, Aug 2025 +0.34%, Sep 2025 +0.22%, Oct 2025 +0.64%, Nov 2025 +0.27%, Dec 2025 +0.14%, Jan 2026 +0.50%, Feb 2026 +0.46%, Mar 2026 +0.23%, Apr 2026 +0.52%, May 2026 +0.79%, Jun 2026 +0.11%, Jul 2026 +0.35%. That history is generally strong, with 15 of the last 23 observed monthly moves at or above 0.2%, which by itself would favor YES. However, the target month is not the next unreleased month after a Limitations: The evidence package only includes the index level history through July 2026; it provides no August 2026 reading, no nowcasts, no component detail, and no analyst expectations for ; Several 2026 observations are marked preliminary and subject to monthly revisions up to four months after original publication; the September 2026 release could revise recent prior; The exact target month in the September 2026 release is not explicitly stated in the package, though by BLS PPI release convention it would ordinarily report the prior month; Only 24 monthly index levels are provided, so the sample for estimating the probability of a >=0.2% monthly increase is limited and may not capture regime shifts or changing inflat

Series WPSFD49116 (final demand less foods, energy, trade services) shows unusually firm momentum through mid-2026: implied one-month changes of roughly +0.5% (Jan), +0.46% (Feb), +0.23% (Mar), +0.52% (Apr), +0.79% (May), +0.11% (Jun), +0.35% (Jul), averaging ~0.35%/month, with year-over-year gain near 4.6%. Six of the last seven months would round to at least 0.2%. Because BLS rounds to one decimal, a raw gain of ~0.15% suffices. Assuming a mean near 0.3% with monthly standard deviation ~0.25%, the probability of clearing 0.15% is roughly 75-80%. Downside risk comes from mean reversion after a very strong stretch and occasional soft prints like June's +0.11%, plus revisions to the preliminary July level that could shift the base. Limitations: Evidence package ends before any August 2026 PPI-related indicators or forecaster consensus were available; No CPI, ISM prices-paid, or import-price data included to condition on current-month pressures; Recent index levels for April-July 2026 are flagged preliminary and subject to revision, affecting the computed base; Seasonal-adjustment status of the cited series is assumed, not explicitly confirmed in the package; Derived month-over-month changes are computed from index levels, which may differ marginally from BLS-published rounded changes

Recent monthly changes in the core PPI index have consistently exceeded 0.2%, with July Limitations: none recorded

July 2026 index = 142.909. The seven 2026 MoM changes average 0.421% (range 0.108-0.787%) with sample sd of 0.22%. Treating the August change as drawn from N(0.40, 0.25) yields P(X >= 0.2) = 0.71. Even under a lower mean of 0.30 the probability remains above 60%. Limitations: Only index levels through July 2026 provided; no August data or external indicators; Volatility estimate based on just 7 recent observations with visible regime shift in 2026; No information on seasonal factors, revisions, or concurrent economic releases