Will final-demand PPI less foods, energy, and trade services rise at least 0.2% month over month? BLS release: October 2026.

The official history in the evidence package shows this core final-demand PPI series (WPSFD49116) has been running fairly hot in 2026. Using the provided index levels, the approximate month-over-month changes are: Jan +0.50%, Feb +0.46%, Mar +0.23%, Apr +0.52%, May +0.77%, Jun +0.16%, Jul +0.38%, Aug +0.27%. That is 7 of the last 8 months at or above the 0.2% threshold, with only June slightly below. The 2025 pattern is also mostly supportive, with several months above 0.2% though less consistently than 2026. This recent momentum makes a future month clearing 0.2% more likely than not. I discount the probability somewhat below the raw recent frequency because the target month is October 2026, which is not yet observed at the evidence cutoff, monthly inflation data are noisy, and some recent observations are still preliminary and subject to revision. Even so, the historical run in the imm Limitations: The evidence package only provides historical values through August 2026; there is no September or October 2026 reading.; No ancillary macro data, market expectations, or component-level information are provided, so the forecast relies mainly on extrapolating recent history.; Several recent observations are marked preliminary and may be revised, which can affect the apparent hit rate relative to the 0.2% threshold.; Seasonality and month-specific effects for October cannot be assessed confidently from the limited history shown.; Because the threshold is close to typical monthly moves, small shocks or revisions can flip the outcome.

Using the WPSFD49116 index levels in the evidence package, monthly changes have been persistently firm: 17 of the last 23 months (and 10 of the last 11) imply a rounded one-month change of at least 0.2% (raw ≥0.15%). The most recent prints (Jun +0.17%, Jul +0.38%, Aug +0.28%) and the 2026 run-rate (~0.4%/month average) are well above the 0.15% raw threshold, indicating the central expectation is around 0.3%. Dispersion is meaningful though — soft months (0.12–0.14%) still occur roughly a quarter of the time, and preliminary values can be revised. A small additional discount accounts for publication/schedule risk and the possibility of a weaker services-driven month. Limitations: Evidence ends 2026-10-12; no information on the September 2026 data month being reported or on analyst consensus.; Recent index values are flagged preliminary and subject to revision up to four months.; Threshold depends on BLS rounding (raw ≥~0.15%), adding borderline ambiguity for soft prints.; No information on potential release delays (e.g., shutdown) that could complicate resolution.; Monthly core PPI is noisy and driven by volatile services components not observable here.

Recent monthly changes in the core-core PPI have consistently exceeded 0.2%, with Limitations: none recorded

The immutable evidence contains index levels only through August 2026. The October 2026 BLS release covers the September 2026 one-month percent change, for which no data or contemporaneous indicators are provided. Recent observed MoM changes (May–Aug 2026) range from +0.16% to +0.38%, straddling the 0.2% threshold, but supply no basis for directional inference about September. With no evidence bearing on the target month, the calibrated probability is 50. Limitations: No September 2026 index value or related high-frequency indicators are present.; Historical MoM volatility is visible but does not extend to the unresolved month.; Evidence cutoff precedes the October release by three days.