Will core CPI-U rise at least 0.2% month over month? BLS release: September 2026.

Using only the official history in the evidence package, the recent core CPI-U monthly changes have mostly been at or above the 0.2% threshold. From the provided index levels, the approximate seasonally adjusted month-over-month changes are: Aug 2024 +0.31%, Sep +0.31%, Oct +0.31%, Nov +0.29%, Dec +0.19%, Jan 2025 +0.43%, Feb +0.07%, Mar +0.07%, Apr +0.24%, May +0.13%, Jun +0.23%, Jul +0.31%, Aug +0.31%, Sep +0.22%, Nov +0.19% (Oct unavailable), Dec +0.23%, Jan 2026 +0.30%, Feb +0.22%, Mar +0.20%, Apr +0.38%, May +0.21%, Jun -0.02%, Jul +0.22%. That is roughly 16 YES outcomes out of 23 observable transitions, about 70%. The most relevant signal is the recent 2026 pattern: Jan through Jul includes six months at or above 0.2%, with only May barely above threshold, March right at about 0.20%, and June a temporary dip before July rebounded to about +0.22%. This suggests underlying monthly 0 Limitations: The evidence package contains only historical BLS index values; it provides no nowcasts, market expectations, or component-level details for the unreleased September 2026 report.; The question concerns the September 2026 BLS release, which likely reports the August 2026 monthly change; no August 2026 index value is included, so the forecast must rely on base; Threshold rounding can matter: several months are near 0.20%, and the resolution depends on the BLS-reported one-month percent change, not my back-of-envelope calculation from the

Computed core CPI (CUSR0000SA0L1E) monthly changes for 2026: Jan +0.30%, Feb +0.22%, Mar +0.20%, Apr +0.38%, May +0.21%, Jun -0.02%, Jul +0.22%. Six of seven 2026 months would have printed at least 0.2% (rounded), and late-2025 months also averaged ~0.2-0.3%. Trailing 12-month core is ~2.5%, implying an average monthly pace near 0.20-0.21%, right at the threshold, but rounding conventions mean any true change of ~0.15% or more prints as 0.2%. Monthly volatility (e.g., the flat June reading) leaves meaningful downside risk, so I place the probability near 0.8 rather than higher. Limitations: No consensus forecast, nowcast, or PPI/import-price inputs for August 2026 data included in the evidence package.; No information on tariff pass-through, shelter, or used-vehicle dynamics for the reference month.; Threshold sensitivity: several recent months rounded to exactly 0.2%, so small revisions/seasonal-factor updates could flip resolution.; Assumes the scheduled 2026-09-11 release occurs on time; no evidence provided on 2026 appropriations/data-collection status beyond the 2025 October gap.

Recent month-over-month core CPI changes have consistently been around or above 0. Limitations: none recorded

The six 2026 core CPI month-over-month changes (0.216%, 0.196%, 0.376%, 0.208%, -0.017%, 0.215%) average 0.199%. With standard deviation approximately 0.13% and no information after July 2026, a normal distribution centered at 0.20% assigns roughly 50% probability that the August 2026 change meets or exceeds the 0.2% threshold required for a YES resolution. Limitations: Only six month-over-month changes available for 2026; High observed volatility including -0.017% and +0.376% outliers; No August 2026-specific data or indicators in package; Missing October 2025 observation breaks series continuity; Small sample precludes reliable seasonality adjustment