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Tennis · Oct 13, 8:05 PM PDT

Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina

78.3%Elina Svitolina
LOCKED Oct 13, 7:30 PM PDT

4/4 independent models select Elina Svitolina; all four oriented probabilities average 78.25%.

FORECASTElina Svitolina

Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.

RELIABILITY4/4 model reports

18 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.

MARKET VALUENot established

A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.

Why the models lean this way

These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.

  • Gemini: Svitolina's superior ranking (6 vs 43)
  • Grok: Svitolina rank 6 vs Samsonova rank 43
  • Claude: Ranking gap: No. 6 vs No. 43; ranking points 5,024 vs 1,229
  • GPT: Current rank edge: Svitolina No. 6 vs Samsonova No. 43
Read all four model reports

Gemini · Elina Svitolina · 80.0%

Elina Svitolina holds a significant advantage in both ranking and season performance. She is ranked No. 6 with 5024 points and a strong 46-14 win-loss record, including two titles. In contrast, Liudmila Samsonova is ranked No. 43 with 1229 points and a losing 20-23 record for the season. Given this substantial gap in form and standing, Svitolina is the clear favorite.

google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 13, 5:00 PM PDT

Grok · Elina Svitolina · 78.0%

Svitolina holds rank 6 with 5024 points and a 46-14 season record versus Samsonova's rank 43, 1229 points and 20-23 record. This large gap in ranking and win rate supports a substantial edge for Svitolina. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.

xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 13, 5:00 PM PDT

Claude · Elina Svitolina · 73.0%

Svitolina holds a decisive edge on both supplied metrics: rank 6 (5,024 points) versus Samsonova's rank 43 (1,229 points), and a 46-14 season record with 2 titles versus Samsonova's sub-.500 20-23 mark with no titles. A ~37-place ranking gap plus a large win-rate differential (77% vs 47%) typically translates to roughly a 70-78% win probability for the favorite in a WTA Round 2 match. I shade toward the lower end of that band because Samsonova is a high-ceiling hard-court ball-striker historically capable of upsets, and because no match-specific context is available. Surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head history, travel/fatigue, and market odds are explicitly unavailable in this evidence package.

anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 13, 5:00 PM PDT

GPT · Elina Svitolina · 82.0%

Using only the supplied evidence, Elina Svitolina is the clear favorite. She has a much stronger current ranking (No. 6 vs No. 43), far more ranking points (5024 vs 1229), and a substantially better 2026 singles record (46-14 vs 20-23). She also has 2 singles titles this season compared with 0 for Liudmila Samsonova. These indicators all point in the same direction and provide a strong evidence-bounded case for Svitolina. Surface-specific form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the evidence package, so this estimate should not be pushed higher with unsupported assumptions.

openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 13, 5:00 PM PDT

What remains uncertain

  • Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
  • Surface-specific form unavailable
  • Injuries unavailable
  • Head-to-head unavailable
  • Travel unavailable
  • Market odds unavailable
  • Head-to-head record not supplied
  • Surface-specific (hard-court) form not supplied

What to watch next

Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.

Open the event and source context →

What changed before the lock

  1. Probability unchanged

    The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.

    Record hashdf046822a87f2d08b7f09a24eca950b6e0ae9b5a244d6b4dd1cb970c9b423ea0
  2. First recorded forecast

    First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.

    Record hashcdd62612acb1098bf38a875d74f4a3f0f02e3ab18aa149c250a0fac2c574c431

Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.

The saved method comparison

All probabilities below refer to Elina Svitolina. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 13, 7:30 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 13, 7:25 PM PDT.

Current TORK78.3%
Simple average78.3%
Calibrated average80.9%
Kalshi73.0%
Comparison record

Saved Oct 13, 7:34 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.

6a00a05fe158108a9724ef9573f23acceaa3ba4d981461c513d14f92b6871728
Inspect the methods and progress →

Available source context

site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗site.api.espn.com ↗

These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.

Recorded outcome: (5) Elina Svitolina (UKR) bt Liudmila Samsonova (RUS) 6-2 5-7 6-2

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