Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 13, 8:05 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTElina Svitolina RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK78.3% Simple average78.3% Calibrated average80.9% Kalshi73.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina
78.3%Elina Svitolina
LOCKED Oct 13, 7:30 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Elina Svitolina; all four oriented probabilities average 78.25%.
Check the evidence
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- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
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18 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Svitolina's superior ranking (6 vs 43)
- Grok: Svitolina rank 6 vs Samsonova rank 43
- Claude: Ranking gap: No. 6 vs No. 43; ranking points 5,024 vs 1,229
- GPT: Current rank edge: Svitolina No. 6 vs Samsonova No. 43
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Elina Svitolina · 80.0%
Elina Svitolina holds a significant advantage in both ranking and season performance. She is ranked No. 6 with 5024 points and a strong 46-14 win-loss record, including two titles. In contrast, Liudmila Samsonova is ranked No. 43 with 1229 points and a losing 20-23 record for the season. Given this substantial gap in form and standing, Svitolina is the clear favorite.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 13, 5:00 PM PDTGrok · Elina Svitolina · 78.0%
Svitolina holds rank 6 with 5024 points and a 46-14 season record versus Samsonova's rank 43, 1229 points and 20-23 record. This large gap in ranking and win rate supports a substantial edge for Svitolina. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 13, 5:00 PM PDTClaude · Elina Svitolina · 73.0%
Svitolina holds a decisive edge on both supplied metrics: rank 6 (5,024 points) versus Samsonova's rank 43 (1,229 points), and a 46-14 season record with 2 titles versus Samsonova's sub-.500 20-23 mark with no titles. A ~37-place ranking gap plus a large win-rate differential (77% vs 47%) typically translates to roughly a 70-78% win probability for the favorite in a WTA Round 2 match. I shade toward the lower end of that band because Samsonova is a high-ceiling hard-court ball-striker historically capable of upsets, and because no match-specific context is available. Surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head history, travel/fatigue, and market odds are explicitly unavailable in this evidence package.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 13, 5:00 PM PDTGPT · Elina Svitolina · 82.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, Elina Svitolina is the clear favorite. She has a much stronger current ranking (No. 6 vs No. 43), far more ranking points (5024 vs 1229), and a substantially better 2026 singles record (46-14 vs 20-23). She also has 2 singles titles this season compared with 0 for Liudmila Samsonova. These indicators all point in the same direction and provide a strong evidence-bounded case for Svitolina. Surface-specific form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the evidence package, so this estimate should not be pushed higher with unsupported assumptions.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 13, 5:00 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
- Surface-specific form unavailable
- Injuries unavailable
- Head-to-head unavailable
- Travel unavailable
- Market odds unavailable
- Head-to-head record not supplied
- Surface-specific (hard-court) form not supplied
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Probability unchanged
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
df046822a87f2d08b7f09a24eca950b6e0ae9b5a244d6b4dd1cb970c9b423ea0 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
cdd62612acb1098bf38a875d74f4a3f0f02e3ab18aa149c250a0fac2c574c431
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Elina Svitolina. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 13, 7:30 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 13, 7:25 PM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 13, 7:34 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
6a00a05fe158108a9724ef9573f23acceaa3ba4d981461c513d14f92b6871728Available source context
site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗site.api.espn.com ↗
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: (5) Elina Svitolina (UKR) bt Liudmila Samsonova (RUS) 6-2 5-7 6-2
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