Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 17, 12:30 PM PDT FORECASTMiami (OH) RedHawks RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Miami (OH) RedHawks vs Akron Zips
77.5%Miami (OH) RedHawks
NOT LOCKED4/4 independent models select Miami (OH) RedHawks; all four oriented probabilities average 77.5%.
16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Miami (OH) is favored by 9.5 points
- Grok: Record advantage (3-3 vs 1-5)
- Claude: DraftKings spread of M-OH -9.5 implies ~80% favorite win probability
- GPT: Miami (OH) has the better record: 3-3 versus Akron's 1-5.
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Miami (OH) RedHawks · 77.0%
Miami (OH) is favored by 9.5 points at home and has a better record (3-3) compared to Akron (1-5). The spread implies a win probability of roughly 77% for the RedHawks.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 17, 9:08 AM PDTGrok · Miami (OH) RedHawks · 76.0%
Miami (OH) holds a 3-3 record against Akron's 1-5. The market line lists Miami (OH) as a 9.5-point home favorite at Yager Stadium, supplying the primary comparative signal for a win probability above 70 percent.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 17, 9:08 AM PDTClaude · Miami (OH) RedHawks · 80.0%
Miami (OH) is a 9.5-point home favorite at Yager Stadium per the supplied DraftKings line, which historically converts to roughly a 78-82% win probability for the favorite. Records corroborate the market: Miami at 3-3 versus Akron at 1-5. No ranking, injury, or efficiency data is supplied to move off the market-implied baseline, so I anchor near the line-implied figure with a slight haircut for unknown personnel news.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 17, 9:08 AM PDTGPT · Miami (OH) RedHawks · 77.0%
Miami (OH) has the stronger available profile in the evidence package: a better record (3-3 vs 1-5), home field at Yager Stadium, and a meaningful market signal with DraftKings listing Miami (OH) -9.5. In college football, a spread near 10 points generally implies the favorite wins substantially more often than not. With no rankings provided and no injuries or advanced efficiency data available, the market line and basic records are the main comparative signals, and both point to Miami (OH).
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 17, 9:08 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No advanced statistics provided
- No injury reports available
- No weather or depth chart information
- No team efficiency or advanced metrics supplied
- Injury and depth-chart data unavailable
- Rankings both null
- No injury, QB availability, or depth-chart information provided
- No advanced efficiency, strength-of-schedule, or scoring-margin metrics
What to watch next
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Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
bf0c4c8a7ce020672df0391bc4d8df213991e00205d51c56a56d178163c3d007
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
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