College Football · Oct 17, 12:30 PM PDT

Miami (OH) RedHawks vs Akron Zips

77.1%Miami (OH) RedHawks

NOT LOCKED

4/4 independent models select Miami (OH) RedHawks; all four oriented probabilities average 77.13%.

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FORECASTMiami (OH) RedHawks

Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.

RELIABILITY4/4 model reports

16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.

MARKET VALUENot established

A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.

Why the models lean this way

These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.

Gemini: Miami (OH) is favored by 9.5 points
Claude: DraftKings spread of M-OH -9.5 implies roughly 78-80% favorite win probability
Grok: Miami (OH) 3-3 record vs Akron 1-5 record
GPT: Miami (OH) has the better record: 3-3 versus Akron's 1-5.

Read all four model reports

Gemini · Miami (OH) RedHawks · 77.5%

Miami (OH) is a 9.5-point favorite at home against a 1-5 Akron team. The market line and home-field advantage strongly suggest Miami (OH) is the likely winner, translating to roughly a 77.5% implied probability.

google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 17, 10:38 AM PDT

Claude · Miami (OH) RedHawks · 79.0%

Miami (OH) is the home team at Yager Stadium and is favored by 9.5 points at DraftKings, a line that historically converts to roughly a 77-81% win probability for the favorite. The records corroborate the market signal: Miami at 3-3 versus Akron at 1-5. No ranking differential or injury data is supplied to shift the estimate off the market anchor, so I stay near the line-implied figure.

anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 17, 10:38 AM PDT

Grok · Miami (OH) RedHawks · 76.0%

Miami (OH) enters at 3-3 while Akron is 1-5. The game is at Yager Stadium, Miami's home venue. DraftKings lists Miami (OH) as a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 47.5. These inputs collectively indicate Miami (OH) holds a substantial edge in expected outcome.

xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 17, 10:38 AM PDT

GPT · Miami (OH) RedHawks · 76.0%

Miami (OH) has the stronger visible profile in the evidence package: a better record (3-3 vs 1-5), home field at Yager Stadium, and a meaningful market signal from DraftKings listing Miami (OH) -9.5. With no rankings for either team, the spread is the strongest comparative indicator provided, and a near-double-digit home favorite in college football generally implies a clear but not overwhelming win edge. Using only these supplied facts, Miami (OH) is the more likely winner.

openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 17, 10:38 AM PDT

What remains uncertain

Missing advanced efficiency metrics
No injury reports or depth chart information available
Weather conditions and specific matchup data are not provided
No injury, suspension, or depth-chart information provided
No advanced efficiency metrics (SP+, EPA, success rate) supplied
No head-to-head history, recent form splits, or home/away performance data
Single market provider; no line movement or consensus available
Records given without strength-of-schedule context

What to watch next

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What changed before the lock

Oct 17, 9:08 AM PDT · house adjudication completedFirst recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
bf0c4c8a7ce020672df0391bc4d8df213991e00205d51c56a56d178163c3d007

Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.

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Available source context

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