Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 17, 4:00 PM PDT FORECASTSouth Florida Bulls RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
South Florida Bulls vs Kent State Golden Flashes
87.8%South Florida Bulls
NOT LOCKED4/4 independent models select South Florida Bulls; all four oriented probabilities average 87.75%.
16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: South Florida is favored by 20.5 points
- Claude: DraftKings line USF -20.5 implies ~90-93% favorite win probability
- Grok: South Florida 4-2 record vs Kent State 2-4
- GPT: South Florida has the better record: 4-2 versus Kent State's 2-4
Read all four model reports
Gemini · South Florida Bulls · 93.0%
South Florida is a heavy 20.5-point home favorite with a superior 4-2 record compared to Kent State's 2-4. The large point spread strongly indicates a high probability of a South Florida victory.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 17, 9:08 AM PDTClaude · South Florida Bulls · 92.0%
USF is a 20.5-point home favorite at Raymond James Stadium, which historically corresponds to roughly a 90-93% win probability for the favorite in FBS play. The records corroborate the market signal (USF 4-2 vs Kent State 2-4), and a MAC bottom-tier program visiting an AAC team with a winning record fits the implied gap. No ranking or injury information contradicts the line, so I anchor near the market-implied figure with a slight haircut for single-game variance.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 17, 9:08 AM PDTGrok · South Florida Bulls · 83.0%
South Florida enters with a 4-2 record against Kent State's 2-4, is a 20.5-point home favorite at Raymond James Stadium, and faces an unranked opponent with no countervailing signals in the supplied facts. The large spread and home status indicate a strong but not certain advantage.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 17, 9:08 AM PDTGPT · South Florida Bulls · 83.0%
South Florida is the stronger side on the supplied evidence. The Bulls have the better record (4-2 vs 2-4), are at home at Raymond James Stadium, and the provided market line lists USF as a substantial 20.5-point favorite. In college football, a favorite of that size usually implies a clear win expectation. With no rankings for either team and no injury or efficiency data in the evidence package, the estimate should remain bounded rather than extreme, but the available comparative signals consistently favor South Florida.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 17, 9:08 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No advanced statistics or efficiency metrics provided
- No injury reports or depth chart changes available
- Weather conditions are not specified
- No injury or depth-chart information provided
- No advanced efficiency metrics, strength of schedule, or scoring margins
- No head-to-head history or recent form details beyond win-loss records
- Single market provider; no line movement history
- Weather and travel conditions unknown
What to watch next
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- First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
d26ecb77bfa9b12b4bc7dc153309bf0aaa7a3e2b119035a0de39216b64a5bef6
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
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