Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 17, 4:00 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTSouth Florida Bulls RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
South Florida Bulls vs Kent State Golden Flashes
89.5%South Florida Bulls
NOT LOCKED4/4 independent models select South Florida Bulls; all four oriented probabilities average 89.5%.
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- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
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17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: USF is favored by 21 points
- Claude: DraftKings line USF -21 implies ~90-94% win probability
- Grok: USF 4-2 record vs Kent State 2-4 record
- GPT: Market line strongly favors South Florida: USF -21
Read all four model reports
Gemini · South Florida Bulls · 93.0%
South Florida is a heavy 21-point favorite at home against Kent State. The Bulls also hold a superior 4-2 record compared to the Golden Flashes' 2-4 mark, strongly indicating a high probability of a South Florida victory.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 17, 10:23 AM PDTClaude · South Florida Bulls · 93.0%
USF is a 21-point home favorite at Raymond James Stadium, a margin that historically converts to roughly a 90-94% win probability for the favorite in college football. Supporting signals align: USF is 4-2 versus Kent State's 2-4, and the Bulls hold home-field advantage. Neither team is ranked, but the market line is the strongest available comparative indicator and points decisively to USF. I set 93%, consistent with large-spread favorites while allowing for upset variance from unknown injuries or turnover luck.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 17, 10:23 AM PDTGrok · South Florida Bulls · 83.0%
South Florida holds a superior 4-2 record versus Kent State's 2-4 and is installed as a 21-point home favorite at Raymond James Stadium. The large spread and home venue supply the primary comparative signal favoring USF.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 17, 10:23 AM PDTGPT · South Florida Bulls · 89.0%
South Florida is the clear favorite on the immutable evidence provided. The comparative signals all point the same direction: USF has the better record (4-2 vs 2-4), is playing at home at Raymond James Stadium, and the supplied market line of USF -21 is a very strong indication of expected superiority. With no rankings available and no injury or efficiency data in scope, the estimate should stay evidence-bounded rather than extreme, but the combination of a three-touchdown home spread and the better record supports a high win probability for South Florida.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 17, 10:23 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Missing advanced team efficiency metrics
- No injury or depth chart information
- Weather and specific matchup dynamics are unknown
- No injury or depth-chart information provided
- No advanced efficiency, strength-of-schedule, or opponent-quality context
- Records alone do not reveal margin or competitiveness of prior games
- Line is a single-provider snapshot at data_current_at; late movement unknown
- No weather or travel/rest information
What to watch next
Wait for all required evidence and the pre-event lock. This view is not final.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
d26ecb77bfa9b12b4bc7dc153309bf0aaa7a3e2b119035a0de39216b64a5bef6
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
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