Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Sep 27, 10:00 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTSeattle Seahawks RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Seattle Seahawks vs Washington Commanders
76.3%Seattle Seahawks
LOCKED Sep 27, 9:30 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Seattle Seahawks; all four oriented probabilities average 76.25%.
Check the evidence
The most important gap and your next source check.
- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Market line SEA -8.5 implies a clear road favorite, historically about a 78-81% win rate
- Gemini: Seattle is an 8.5-point road favorite.
- Grok: Seattle 2-0 record vs Washington 0-2 record
- GPT: Seattle is 2-0 while Washington is 0-2.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Seattle Seahawks · 79.0%
DraftKings lists Seattle at -8.5 on the road, a substantial market edge that typically converts to roughly a 78-81% win probability. The low total of 40.5 slightly favors the favorite by reducing expected variance and scoring swings that help underdogs. Records reinforce the line: Seattle is 2-0 while Washington is 0-2 at home. Offsetting factors are modest: Washington has home-field advantage at Northwest Stadium, and no injury or quarterback-status information is supplied for either side, so a late availability change could shift the true number. Balancing the market signal with that uncertainty, I land near the spread-implied figure rather than above it.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 26, 9:15 PM PDTGemini · Seattle Seahawks · 78.0%
The Seattle Seahawks are favored by 8.5 points on the road against the Washington Commanders. In the NFL, an 8.5-point spread typically translates to a win probability of approximately 78%. Seattle's 2-0 record compared to Washington's 0-2 start further supports their status as strong favorites.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 26, 9:15 PM PDTGrok · Seattle Seahawks · 71.0%
Seattle enters at 2-0 while Washington is 0-2. The DraftKings market line lists SEA -8.5 on the road, indicating a substantial talent and form edge. Early-season records and the spread together point to Seattle as the clearer favorite despite the venue.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 26, 9:15 PM PDTGPT · Seattle Seahawks · 77.0%
Seattle has the clearly stronger evidence package: a 2-0 record versus Washington's 0-2 record, plus a substantial market indicator of Seahawks -8.5 on the road. A road favorite of more than a touchdown is strong comparative evidence that Seattle is materially more likely to win outright. Home field for Washington matters somewhat, but it is not enough to offset both the early-season record gap and the size of the line. With no injury or quarterback specifics available, the forecast should not be pushed too aggressively, but Seattle is still the best-supported side by the supplied facts.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 26, 9:15 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Injury lists are empty for both teams; official game-status reports may not have published
- No quarterback confirmation for either side
- Home and away moneylines are null, so implied probability is derived from the spread alone
- Weather data is null for an outdoor Landover venue
- Only win-loss records provided; no point differential, efficiency, or strength-of-schedule context
- No moneyline odds are provided, requiring a spread-to-probability conversion.
- No injury information or player availability details are present.
- Weather conditions for the game are not specified.
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 15.0 percentage points higher for Seattle Seahawks
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
27ad40a09a86dd0f9094b1c2931b4e565ace9b7d8f1a236e6dd9517a3cdf0c1e - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
17b41bb5be4b21bbdc44bb59e501b17a74e93c27b15e86f9748be15946d9afa3
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Seattle Seahawks 31, Washington Commanders 33
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