Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 9, 10:40 PM PDT FORECASTTomas Martin Etcheverry RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Dalibor Svrcina
76.5%Tomas Martin Etcheverry
LOCKED Oct 9, 10:00 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Tomas Martin Etcheverry; all four oriented probabilities average 76.5%.
18 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Etcheverry rank 31 vs Svrcina rank 126
- Gemini: Etcheverry's ATP rank of 31 compared to Svrcina's 126
- Claude: Ranking gap: No. 31 vs No. 126 (1,590 vs 474 points)
- GPT: Etcheverry holds the much stronger current rank: No. 31 vs No. 126.
Read all four model reports
Grok · Tomas Martin Etcheverry · 78.0%
Etcheverry holds a substantially superior current rank (31 vs 126) and season singles record (26-23 vs 6-9). Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 9, 5:01 PM PDTGemini · Tomas Martin Etcheverry · 80.0%
Tomas Martin Etcheverry holds a significant advantage in both ranking and season performance. Ranked 31st with 1590 points, he has a winning 26-23 record and one title this season. In contrast, Dalibor Svrcina is ranked 126th with 474 points and a losing 6-9 record. The substantial gap in ranking points and match experience strongly favors Etcheverry.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 9, 5:01 PM PDTClaude · Tomas Martin Etcheverry · 71.0%
Etcheverry is ranked No. 31 with 1,590 points and a 26-23 season record, versus Svrcina at No. 126 with 474 points and a 6-9 record. A ~95-place ranking gap plus a materially better win rate (53% vs 40%) makes Etcheverry the clear favorite. However, Etcheverry's own record is only modestly above .500 and he slipped one rank, while the lower-ranked player reaching Round 2 of a Masters implies he won at least one match here — both temper the edge. Surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head history, travel/fatigue, and market odds are not supplied in the evidence package and could not be considered, so I hold the estimate near the typical rank-gap baseline rather than pushing higher.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 9, 5:01 PM PDTGPT · Tomas Martin Etcheverry · 77.0%
Using only the supplied immutable evidence, Tomas Martin Etcheverry has a clear pre-match edge based on both current ATP rank and 2026 season record. Etcheverry is ranked No. 31 with a 26-23 singles record, while Dalibor Svrcina is ranked No. 126 with a 6-9 singles record. The ranking gap is large, and Etcheverry has both more tour-level success and a better season win volume in the provided data. That supports making Etcheverry the favorite. Surface-specific form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in this evidence package, so the estimate should not be pushed too high despite the strong ranking advantage.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 9, 5:01 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface-specific form unavailable
- Injuries unavailable
- Head-to-head unavailable
- Travel unavailable
- Market odds unavailable
- Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
- Surface-specific (hard-court) form not supplied
- Injury and fitness status not supplied
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 2.0 percentage points lower for Tomas Martin Etcheverry
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
863ff2383ba73adbda04f2cdc5a84cda6f5d484bce90ded183dd6b6be4addb19 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
589b28c7ac59a3035dea9dd1c42bf9a3799b55bce5e1fe0a140e84040dd331ea
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
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Recorded outcome: Dalibor Svrcina (CZE) bt (28) Tomas Martin Etcheverry (ARG) 6-3 3-6 7-5
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