Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 15, 8:50 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTClara Burel RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Clara Burel vs Mathilde Lollia
66.5%Clara Burel
LOCKED Oct 15, 6:30 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Clara Burel; all four oriented probabilities average 66.5%.
Check the evidence
The most important gap and your next source check.
- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
20 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Clara Burel has a season record of 21 wins and 11 losses.
- Claude: Burel season record 21-11 (.656) vs Lollia 18-20 (.474)
- Grok: Burel season record 21-11
- GPT: Clara Burel season singles record: 21-11
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Clara Burel · 72.0%
Clara Burel has a significantly better season win-loss record (21-11, 65.6% win rate) compared to Mathilde Lollia (18-20, 47.4% win rate). With Burel winning over 65% of her matches and Lollia having a losing record, Burel is the clear favorite. However, the absence of rankings and other contextual factors limits confidence.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 15, 5:30 AM PDTClaude · Clara Burel · 68.0%
Neither player has a supplied current ranking or points, so the only usable discriminator is 2026 season singles record. Burel is 21-11 (.656) versus Lollia at 18-20 (.474), an ~18-point gap in win rate across reasonably sized samples (32 vs 38 matches). Converting that differential into a match-level edge, with regression toward 50% because opponent quality and tournament level behind each record are unknown, supports Burel as a moderate favorite rather than a heavy one. Surface-specific form, injuries/fitness, head-to-head history, travel/scheduling, and market odds are explicitly unavailable in this evidence package, so no adjustment for those is made. Neither player has a title this season, offering no additional separation.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 15, 5:30 AM PDTGrok · Clara Burel · 60.0%
Clara Burel holds a superior season singles record of 21 wins and 11 losses compared to Mathilde Lollia's 18-20. This record differential forms the sole quantitative basis for favoring Burel at a modest probability edge. No ranking data is available for either player.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 15, 5:30 AM PDTGPT · Clara Burel · 66.0%
Using only the supplied immutable evidence, Clara Burel has the stronger 2026 singles record: 21-11 versus Mathilde Lollia's 18-20. That implies a materially better season-level win rate for Burel (about 65.6% vs about 47.4%), which is the clearest available differentiator because neither player has a supplied current rank. Based on that gap alone, Burel should be favored, but not overwhelmingly, since this forecast lacks other important matchup context. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the evidence package.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 15, 5:30 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Rankings are missing for both players.
- Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
- No current ESPN rank or ranking points for either player
- Surface-specific (indoor/hard/clay) form not supplied
- Injury, fitness, and recent withdrawal status unavailable
- Head-to-head history unavailable
- Travel and scheduling context unavailable
- Market odds unavailable, so no external price anchor
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 0.3 percentage points higher for Clara Burel
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
3afb127532d022ba214cab8434de316d6a6095430aa4b40d8483b1d59b181991 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
21cf46b8a758158ce95073feba7a15b979560de513f8e1534b05284a012bdc12
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Clara Burel (FRA) bt Mathilde Lollia (FRA) 6-0 6-1
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