Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 10, 9:00 AM PDT FORECASTArmy Black Knights RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Army Black Knights vs Tulane Green Wave
61.8%Army Black Knights
LOCKED Oct 10, 8:31 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Army Black Knights; all four oriented probabilities average 61.75%.
16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: DraftKings line Army -4 (home favorite) is the primary comparative signal
- Grok: Market line ARMY -4 at home
- Gemini: Army is playing at home (Michie Stadium)
- GPT: DraftKings market line lists Army -4, indicating Army as the expected winner
Read all four model reports
Claude · Army Black Knights · 65.0%
Both teams enter 2-2 and unranked, so the only differentiating comparative signal is the DraftKings line of Army -4 at home in Michie Stadium with a total of 48.5. A 4-point favorite in college football historically converts to roughly a 63-67% straight-up win rate, and the moderate total slightly reduces variance-driven upset odds relative to a high-scoring environment. Army's home-field advantage at West Point is embedded in that line. With no injury, depth-chart, or efficiency data to adjust from the market baseline, I anchor essentially at the implied moneyline equivalent.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 10, 7:53 AM PDTGrok · Army Black Knights · 58.0%
Both teams enter at 2-2 with no rankings supplied. The DraftKings market line lists Army as a 4-point home favorite at Michie Stadium, providing the sole comparative signal. A 4-point spread typically corresponds to a modest favorite win probability in the mid-to-high 50s. Venue and line together outweigh the identical records.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 10, 7:53 AM PDTGemini · Army Black Knights · 63.0%
Army is a 4-point home favorite against Tulane, with both teams holding a 2-2 record. The market line suggests Army has a moderate advantage, translating to roughly a 63% win probability.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 10, 7:53 AM PDTGPT · Army Black Knights · 61.0%
Army is the likelier winner based on the supplied comparative signals: a home game at Michie Stadium and a market line of Army -4 from DraftKings. The teams have identical 2-2 records and neither is ranked, so record/ranking evidence is neutral. In this evidence set, the spread is the strongest differentiator, and a 4-point home favorite generally implies a modest but clear edge rather than dominance. That supports an estimate in the low-60% range for Army to win outright.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 10, 7:53 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No injury reports or depth-chart status supplied
- No advanced efficiency, SP+/FPI, or strength-of-schedule metrics
- No head-to-head history or recent form detail beyond win-loss records
- Single sportsbook line with no market movement or consensus context
- Quality of each team's 2-2 record (opponent strength) is unknown
- Weather and kickoff-condition information unavailable
- No advanced efficiency metrics or rankings available
- Injuries and depth-chart changes not supplied
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 5.8 percentage points higher for Army Black Knights
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
125645c6035d62566dd948c8aba92c415726b29c5a79c9eff92dbf57dae291e7 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
ae8b40f5d50b65c8b418a518f211d4424b8f252449f6b69a6263cc5d77e7ead9
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Final
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