Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 11, 4:35 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTMirra Andreeva RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Mirra Andreeva vs Zheng Qinwen
79.8%Mirra Andreeva
LOCKED Oct 11, 4:00 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Mirra Andreeva; all four oriented probabilities average 79.75%.
Inspect forecast changes
A record of the change and whether it needs a follow-up.
- Compare the earlier and locked forecasts.
- Read the recorded reason and its limits.
- Decide whether the change needs further research.
20 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Mirra Andreeva's superior ranking (5 vs 54)
- Claude: Ranking gap: No. 5 (5,841 pts) vs No. 54 (1,083 pts)
- Grok: Andreeva rank 5 vs Zheng rank 54
- GPT: Andreeva rank No. 5 vs Zheng rank No. 54
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Mirra Andreeva · 78.0%
Mirra Andreeva holds a significant advantage in both ranking (No. 5 vs No. 54) and season performance (45-15 with 3 titles vs 18-14 with 0 titles). While Zheng Qinwen may benefit from playing in her home country, Andreeva's superior consistency and elite ranking make her the clear favorite.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 11, 12:45 AM PDTClaude · Mirra Andreeva · 75.0%
Andreeva holds a decisive edge on the only supplied metrics: ranked No. 5 with 5,841 points versus Zheng's No. 54 and 1,083 points, and a 45-15 season record with 3 titles versus 18-14 and no titles. That roughly five-fold ranking-point gap and markedly better win rate (75% vs 56%) support a clear favorite status. Tempering factors: this is a tour-level final, so Zheng has demonstrated current form by advancing through the draw, and her depressed ranking may reflect a shortened or disrupted season rather than true level; finals between an in-form lower-ranked player and a top-5 opponent are typically closer than raw rankings imply. Surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are not supplied and were not used.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 11, 12:45 AM PDTGrok · Mirra Andreeva · 82.0%
Andreeva holds rank 5 with 5841 points and a 45-15 record plus 3 titles, while Zheng is ranked 54 with 1083 points and an 18-14 record with 0 titles. These supplied ranking and season facts indicate a substantial gap favoring Andreeva in a WTA final. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 11, 12:45 AM PDTGPT · Mirra Andreeva · 84.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, Mirra Andreeva is the clear favorite. She is ranked No. 5 versus Zheng Qinwen at No. 54, a very large ranking gap, and her 2026 season record is much stronger at 45-15 versus 18-14. Andreeva also has 3 singles titles this season while Zheng has 0, which supports the idea that Andreeva has performed at a much higher level across the year. This is a final, so both players have made a deep run here, but the immutable evidence package gives no tournament-specific match quality details beyond their season results. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the evidence, so they cannot be used to adjust the estimate. Based on rank and season win-loss only, Andreeva should win a strong majority of the time, but not so high as to ignore the uncertainty from missing context and the fact that Zheng has still reached the final.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 11, 12:45 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface form is unavailable
- Injuries are unavailable
- Head-to-head records are unavailable
- Travel information is unavailable
- Market odds are unavailable
- No surface-specific form or hard-court splits provided
- No injury or fitness information available
- No head-to-head record supplied
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 2.0 percentage points higher for Mirra Andreeva
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
67c87a28091495457231b436f206ccbdf3c1ddf55ef7762d8e16d080fb059e14 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
32495120c0fed57fbb16fb1f90e1ae26cddb999c9fd01b71cebdb5255a31dbb3
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗site.api.espn.com ↗
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Qinwen Zheng (CHN) bt (4) Mirra Andreeva (RUS) 7-5 6-4
Finish your review
Record whether this brief helped, how long the review took, and your next action.
Return to your review →