Tennis · Oct 16, 11:00 PM PDT

Rei Sakamoto vs Amir Omarkhanov

84.3%Rei Sakamoto

LOCKED Oct 16, 10:30 PM PDT

4/4 independent models select Rei Sakamoto; all four oriented probabilities average 84.25%.

FORECASTRei Sakamoto

Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.

RELIABILITY4/4 model reports

19 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.

MARKET VALUENot established

A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.

Why the models lean this way

These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.

Gemini: Rei Sakamoto is ranked No. 137 with 423 points.
Claude: Sakamoto ranked No. 137 with 423 ranking points; stable vs previous rank
Grok: Rei Sakamoto ATP rank 137 and 423 points
GPT: Rei Sakamoto is explicitly ranked No. 137.

Read all four model reports

Gemini · Rei Sakamoto · 88.0%

Rei Sakamoto holds a significant advantage in ranking and tour-level experience, sitting at world No. 137 with 423 ranking points and 8 matches played this season. Amir Omarkhanov is currently unranked with no tour-level matches played this season, making Sakamoto the clear favorite despite the lack of surface-specific or head-to-head data.

google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 16, 5:02 PM PDT

Claude · Rei Sakamoto · 85.0%

Sakamoto holds an established ATP ranking of No. 137 with 423 ranking points, indicating a tour-level professional competing regularly at Challenger/ATP qualifying standard. Omarkhanov has no ranking, no ranking points, and no recorded season singles wins or losses, consistent with an unranked local entrant/wildcard in Almaty qualifying. In ATP qualifying, a top-150 player facing an unranked opponent is a heavy favorite; the ranking gap is the dominant signal available. Sakamoto's modest 3-5 season record tempers the edge slightly, as does the possibility that an unranked home player is a promising junior with hidden form and home support. Surface-specific form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are not available in this evidence package.

anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 16, 5:02 PM PDT

Grok · Rei Sakamoto · 82.0%

Rei Sakamoto holds an explicit ATP rank of 137 with 423 ranking points and a 3-5 season singles record, while Amir Omarkhanov has null rank, null points, and a 0-0 record. This ranking and activity differential supplies the only usable evidence for a win-probability estimate in the qualifying-round context. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable per the evidence scope.

xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 16, 5:02 PM PDT

GPT · Rei Sakamoto · 82.0%

Using only the supplied evidence, Rei Sakamoto has a clear documented edge. He is ranked No. 137 with 423 ranking points, while Amir Omarkhanov has no supplied current rank, no supplied ranking points, and a 0-0 season record in the evidence package. Sakamoto also has an explicit 2026 singles record of 3-5, which is not strong in absolute terms, but it is still materially more informative than Omarkhanov's empty season record in the provided data. In a Qualifying 1st Round ATP match, an established top-150 player would usually be favored over an opponent with no recorded rank or season wins/losses in the evidence set. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable here, so the estimate should not be pushed too high, but the ranking and points gap support Sakamoto as the likely winner.

openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 16, 5:02 PM PDT

What remains uncertain

Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
No data on Omarkhanov's performance at the Challenger or ITF levels.
No surface-specific (indoor hard) form supplied
No injury or fitness information
No head-to-head history
No travel/scheduling or recent-match-fatigue data
No market odds or implied probabilities
Opponent has zero match data, so his true level is unobservable

What to watch next

Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.

Open the event and source context →

What changed before the lock

Oct 16, 10:30 PM PDT · final lock1.8 percentage points higher for Rei Sakamoto
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
a8d6c10c1f9c864fd2e81548cf1bdf2e8245c9d1929f56f6d32bcca8e7b10118
Oct 16, 8:00 AM PDT · house adjudication completedFirst recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
d5f292e7ae6ac14a11ff99d5f2ad632643d9e36736a9c8842f1bc2ec6e1066a0

Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.

The saved method comparison

All probabilities below refer to Rei Sakamoto. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 16, 10:30 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 16, 10:25 PM PDT.

Current TORK84.3%

Simple average84.3%

Calibrated average87.4%

Kalshi93.0%

Comparison record

Saved Oct 16, 10:30 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.

7193b8455b98733d4e9dd9b2fc08a0f2ba9440eb29a550366d96c42594c90add

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Available source context

site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗

These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.

Recorded outcome: Rei Sakamoto (JPN) bt Amir Omarkhanov (KAZ) 6-2 6-1

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