Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsMMA · Oct 31, 2:00 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTLuana Santos RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Yana Santos vs Luana Santos
59.6%Luana Santos
NOT LOCKEDAll four probabilities, converted to the same fighter, average 59.63% for Luana Santos. 4/4 models select this fighter.
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13 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Grappling edge: Luana 86 percent TDD and 0.97 subs per 15 vs Yana 52 percent TDD
- Gemini: Significant age gap (Luana is 10 years younger)
- Grok: Luana's age and grappling offense advantage
- GPT: Luana Santos is 11-2 with recent wins over Karol Rosa, Melissa Croden, and Tainara Lisboa.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Luana Santos · 63.0%
Luana is 11 years younger, defends takedowns at 86 percent and lands 2.14 per 15 with a strong submission rate, while Yana defends only 52 percent and absorbs 3.12 per minute. Luana also beat Karol Rosa, who beat Yana. Yana's volume and three-fight streak keep it close.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 16, 5:07 PM PDTGemini · Luana Santos · 60.5%
This matchup pits the veteran striking volume of Yana Santos against the youthful grappling upside of Luana Santos. Yana holds a distinct advantage on the feet in terms of output, landing 4.41 significant strikes per minute compared to Luana's 2.53. However, Luana, who is a decade younger, presents a significant submission threat (0.97 submissions per 15 minutes and 5 career submission wins). Yana's takedown defense sits at a vulnerable 52%, which could provide Luana the openings she needs to bring the fight to the mat. Additionally, Luana recently secured a win over Karol Rosa, a fighter who previously defeated Yana. The bout was added to the card roughly 15 days before the event, making it a short-notice preparation for both women, a scenario that often favors the younger, grappling-focused fighter.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 16, 5:06 PM PDTGrok · Luana Santos · 57.0%
Luana Santos holds a clear edge via youth (26 vs 37), superior defensive metrics (64% striking defense, 86% takedown defense), and grappling volume (2.14 takedowns and 0.97 submissions per 15 minutes). Her recent wins include a decision over Karol Rosa (who previously beat Yana) plus two first-round finishes. Yana's higher striking output is offset by lower defense and minimal grappling threat. The late bout addition introduces shared preparation uncertainty but does not alter the profile comparison.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 16, 5:06 PM PDTGPT · Luana Santos · 58.0%
Luana Santos looks like the slightly more likely winner based on the supplied pre-event evidence. Yana Santos has the deeper overall résumé and strong recent form with three straight decision wins over established UFC opposition, but Luana is much younger, has the better defensive striking numbers, and shows the stronger grappling upside on paper with higher takedown volume, far better listed takedown defense, and much higher submission rate. Both women own a win over Karol Rosa in their recent sample, which helps anchor them against a common opponent; Luana’s win is more recent, while Yana previously lost a split decision to Rosa. Yana’s striking output is notably higher and she has been very active in long fights, so she has a credible path if she keeps the bout standing and works volume. Still, the available stats and finishing/grappling profile suggest Luana has more ways to win and,
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 16, 5:06 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No licensed pre-event odds supplied
- Bout added about 15 days out; preparation and notice details for each fighter unverified
- No reach, stance, or decision-win counts; fight-level context such as injury or camp changes not verified
- Missing reach and stance data for both fighters
- Luana's takedown accuracy is listed at 0% despite averaging 2.14 takedowns per 15 minutes, suggesting a statistical anomaly in the source data
- Lack of licensed pre-event odds to gauge broader market sentiment
- No head-to-head history or shared opponents beyond Karol Rosa
- Reach and stance data unavailable for both
What to watch next
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- First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
c44555e6899d2359a3fdf7ebfe245e80d8827b9b46f91551565f13c321bd94fe
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
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