Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsBoxing · Sep 12, 2:00 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTVlad Panin RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Vlad Panin vs Dakota Linger
55.0%Vlad Panin
LOCKED Sep 12, 9:20 AM PDTAll four probabilities, converted to the same fighter, average 55% for Vlad Panin. 4/4 models select this fighter. Confidence is limited by the underlying model evidence.
Check the evidence
The most important gap and your next source check.
- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
15 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Scheduled for 6 rounds
- Grok: No boxing records or histories documented
- Claude: Only documented facts are scheduled rounds (6) and official weights (151.5 vs 150.5)
- GPT: No documented records or opponent-adjusted histories for either boxer
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Vlad Panin · 50.0%
There is no provided evidence regarding the fighters' records, past opponent quality, recent form, or fighting styles. With only the scheduled rounds and weigh-in results available, there is no basis to establish a skill advantage for either fighter. Therefore, the forecast is a coin flip.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 12, 9:20 AM PDTGrok · Vlad Panin · 50.0%
No records, opponent histories, recent form, styles, or experience details are supplied for either fighter. Only names, 6-round super welterweight bout, and near-identical weigh-in weights (151.5 vs 150.5) appear in evidence. These factors alone do not establish skill advantage per instructions. Sparse data requires lowest probability and confidence.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 12, 9:20 AM PDTClaude · Vlad Panin · 70.0%
Evidence is limited to weigh-in data: a 6-round super welterweight bout, Panin 151.5 vs Linger 150.5. No records, opponent quality, or recent form are documented, so this is a structural read only. Panin is listed as side A (typically the promoted/house prospect) against Linger in a short 6-round assignment, a pattern consistent with a prospect-vs-opponent matchmaking setup. That is weak inference, not verified skill data, so the lean is modest and confidence is low. Weight difference of one pound and round count carry no independent weight. A decisive-result-conditional lean to Panin at a moderate margin is appropriate.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 12, 9:20 AM PDTGPT · Vlad Panin · 50.0%
Vlad Panin is the pick only as a true coin flip. The supplied evidence gives no records, opponent quality, recent form, stance/style, or notable boxing accomplishments for either fighter. We only know this is a 6-round super welterweight bout and the official weights are close, which does not establish an edge. With no documented pre-fight performance data, the most calibrated conditional forecast on a decisive result is essentially even.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 12, 9:20 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No records provided
- No opponent history provided
- No recent form or style information available
- No verified injury, camp, judges, or detailed opponent-adjusted history feed is connected
- Round start times are not fixed
- All forecasts use the card's prelim start as the cutoff
- Winner probabilities conditional on decisive result only
- No fight records or opponent-adjusted histories supplied for either boxer
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Probability unchanged
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
ec28ee7b78fd6997aae8b1002466ac8b952cc7e1dc4fee256f8c5b7449998192 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
e49efdc1a948b097117bf0acbcd9384d20ccc24feaa948fff5e3ef77f642484f
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Vlad Panin defeats Dakota Linger via TKO – Round 4, 1:22
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