Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 9, 7:30 PM PDT FORECASTBYU Cougars RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
BYU Cougars vs Iowa State Cyclones
79.9%BYU Cougars
LOCKED Oct 9, 7:01 PM PDT4/4 independent models select BYU Cougars; all four oriented probabilities average 79.88%.
16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: BYU is undefeated (4-0) and ranked #8
- Claude: DraftKings line BYU -11.5 implies roughly 80% win probability
- Grok: BYU 4-0 record and #8 ranking vs Iowa State 3-2 unranked
- GPT: BYU is 4-0 while Iowa State is 3-2.
Read all four model reports
Gemini · BYU Cougars · 78.5%
BYU is an undefeated top-10 team playing at home and is favored by 11.5 points in the betting markets. Iowa State is 3-2 and unranked, making BYU a strong favorite to win outright.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 9, 6:37 PM PDTClaude · BYU Cougars · 81.0%
BYU is the home team at LaVell Edwards Stadium, undefeated at 4-0, nationally ranked No. 8, and favored by 11.5 points per DraftKings against an unranked 3-2 Iowa State squad. A home favorite of 11.5 points historically converts to roughly a 79-83% straight-up win rate; all supplied signals (record, ranking, venue, market) point in the same direction, so I anchor near the market-implied figure without adjustment.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 9, 6:37 PM PDTGrok · BYU Cougars · 81.0%
BYU enters at 4-0 with #8 ranking and is favored by 11.5 points at home in LaVell Edwards Stadium against a 3-2 unranked Iowa State team. The double-digit spread and superior record/ranking supply a clear comparative signal favoring BYU.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 9, 6:37 PM PDTGPT · BYU Cougars · 79.0%
BYU has the stronger evidence package at this point in time: a better record (4-0 vs 3-2), a top-10 ranking (#8 vs unranked), home field at LaVell Edwards Stadium, and a substantial market signal with BYU favored by 11.5 points. Among the supplied facts, the market line is the strongest comparative indicator, and a double-digit home favorite in an FBS game generally implies a clear win probability edge. The record and ranking align with that signal rather than conflict with it. Based only on these immutable facts, BYU should be favored to win comfortably more often than not, but not at near-certainty because no injuries, roster availability, or efficiency matchup data are provided.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 9, 6:37 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No advanced efficiency metrics provided
- Missing injury reports and depth chart updates
- Lack of specific matchup statistics
- No injury, availability, or depth-chart information supplied
- No advanced efficiency metrics, strength-of-schedule, or opponent quality data
- No information on weather or late line movement
- Conference standing and head-to-head history not provided
- Single sportsbook line; no market consensus available
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 4.4 percentage points lower for BYU Cougars
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
9a061e465d394c2e60b9cd716cd43a93dfb78574d580ae65321b5339d9f30b93 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
a479540983a38b963b60c6945f6cb27024af44a68f8b000758579c29e9d570c3
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Final
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