Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 14, 8:05 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTKarolina Muchova RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK67.3% Simple average67.3% Calibrated average68.9% Kalshi49.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Diana Shnaider vs Karolina Muchova
67.3%Karolina Muchova
LOCKED Oct 14, 7:30 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Karolina Muchova; all four oriented probabilities average 67.25%.
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A documented difference, its timing, and limits.
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20 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Muchova's higher rank of 7 compared to Shnaider's 13
- Claude: Muchova ranked 7 vs Shnaider 13; ranking points 4773 vs 2643
- Grok: Karolina Muchova rank 7 vs Diana Shnaider rank 13
- GPT: Higher current ranking for Karolina Muchova (#7 vs #13)
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Karolina Muchova · 70.0%
Karolina Muchova holds a higher rank (7 vs 13) and significantly more ranking points (4773 vs 2643) than Diana Shnaider. Muchova also boasts a superior season win-loss record of 40-11 (78.4% win rate) compared to Shnaider's 29-20 (59.2% win rate), along with two singles titles to Shnaider's zero. These factors indicate Muchova is the clear favorite based on current season performance.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 14, 5:00 PM PDTClaude · Karolina Muchova · 66.0%
Muchova holds the superior credentials on both supplied metrics: a higher current rank (7 vs 13, with nearly double the ranking points, 4773 vs 2643) and a far stronger season record (40-11, .784, with 2 titles) against Shnaider's 29-20 (.592, no titles). A rank gap of six places on the WTA tour alone implies only a modest edge, but the win-rate differential of roughly 19 percentage points reinforces it, supporting a probability in the mid-60s rather than anything more emphatic. Surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head history, travel/scheduling load, and market odds are all unavailable in this evidence package, so the estimate is deliberately kept close to what rank and record alone justify.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 14, 5:00 PM PDTGrok · Karolina Muchova · 65.0%
Karolina Muchova holds a superior ranking (7 vs 13), higher ranking points (4773 vs 2643), a stronger season record (40-11 vs 29-20), and more titles (2 vs 0). These factors indicate she is the stronger player. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 14, 5:00 PM PDTGPT · Karolina Muchova · 68.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, Karolina Muchova has the stronger profile. She is ranked higher (#7 vs #13), has substantially more ranking points (4773 vs 2643), and owns the better 2026 singles record (40-11 vs 29-20), along with more titles this season (2 vs 0). Those facts point to Muchova as the more likely winner. Surface-specific form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in this evidence package, so the estimate should remain moderate rather than extreme.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 14, 5:00 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface form is unavailable
- Injuries are unavailable
- Head-to-head records are unavailable
- Travel schedules are unavailable
- Market odds are unavailable
- No head-to-head record supplied
- No surface-specific (hard-court) form or recent match-by-match results
- No injury, fitness, or retirement information
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 1.0 percentage points higher for Karolina Muchova
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
363430b52d510ba172242c7742c1ef20baf30d5c38729865e3d04eef8bcc73a4 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
1315ad3b21a01702612aa9d8ca73c3e1ee995d1e97429517a701e338d5397712
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Karolina Muchova. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 14, 7:30 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 14, 7:25 PM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 14, 7:34 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
38ee0e117d0e21da63628a309a66069e42eb3b6dfceae3bba4586a6bcd190781Available source context
site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗site.api.espn.com ↗
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: (11) Diana Shnaider (RUS) bt (6) Karolina Muchova (CZE) 7-5 6-3
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