Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 10, 4:00 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTNevada Wolf Pack RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
UTEP Miners vs Nevada Wolf Pack
73.5%Nevada Wolf Pack
LOCKED Oct 10, 3:31 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Nevada Wolf Pack; all four oriented probabilities average 73.5%.
Check the evidence
The most important gap and your next source check.
- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
18 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: DraftKings line NEV -10 is the dominant comparative signal, implying ~78-82% win probability
- Gemini: Nevada is favored by 10 points (NEV -10)
- Grok: Market line: NEV -10
- GPT: DraftKings market line lists Nevada as a 10-point favorite, the strongest signal in the evidence package.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Nevada Wolf Pack · 77.0%
The only strong comparative signal is the supplied DraftKings line of Nevada -10, which holds even though the game is at UTEP's Sun Bowl, implying the market sees a substantial talent/efficiency gap (a neutral-site equivalent edge of roughly two touchdowns). Historically, a 10-point college football favorite wins close to 78-82% of the time. Records (UTEP 1-4, Nevada 1-3) are similar and provide little differentiation, so I shade slightly below the pure spread-implied figure to respect that record parity, home-field uncertainty, and the absence of injury or efficiency data.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 10, 2:08 PM PDTGemini · Nevada Wolf Pack · 78.0%
Nevada is a 10-point road favorite against UTEP. While both teams have struggled early in the season with 1-3 and 1-4 records respectively, the betting market strongly favors Nevada, translating to an implied win probability of roughly 78%.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 10, 2:08 PM PDTGrok · Nevada Wolf Pack · 65.0%
Nevada enters at 1-3 while UTEP is 1-4; the DraftKings market line lists Nevada as a 10-point road favorite. In FBS, a double-digit spread typically implies a 62-68% win probability for the favored side. Home-field advantage at Sun Bowl narrows the gap but does not overcome the market signal given the supplied facts.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 10, 2:08 PM PDTGPT · Nevada Wolf Pack · 74.0%
Nevada is the evidence-supported favorite. The strongest comparative signal in the package is the market line of Nevada -10, which implies a clear but not overwhelming win expectation. Team records are close (Nevada 1-3 vs UTEP 1-4), so records provide only a slight relative lean to Nevada. The game is at UTEP's home venue (Sun Bowl), which offsets some of Nevada's edge, but not enough to overcome a double-digit market spread. With no rankings and no deeper roster or efficiency data available, the best bounded estimate is that Nevada wins roughly three out of four times.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 10, 2:08 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No injury reports, quarterback status, or depth-chart information supplied
- No advanced efficiency metrics (SP+, FEI, EPA) or strength-of-schedule context
- No information on quality of opponents behind each team's record
- Single market provider quoted; no line movement or closing-line context
- Home-field advantage magnitude for UTEP at the Sun Bowl cannot be independently verified
- Weather and travel factors unavailable
- Missing advanced statistical metrics
- No injury information provided
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 0.8 percentage points lower for Nevada Wolf Pack
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
fdc01886f1be21c2ea6f3844d26e73466b30b145e5cf05f8a3cac3c74ec9e445 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
430fd9641dcc07aeba111de6b2c109f839e263614d40875eebe588e7cd2c77f6
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Final
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