Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 17, 9:00 AM PDT FORECASTNorthwestern Wildcats RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Michigan State Spartans vs Northwestern Wildcats
68.9%Northwestern Wildcats
LOCKED Oct 17, 8:32 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Northwestern Wildcats; all four oriented probabilities average 68.88%.
16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Market line NU -7 (road favorite) is the dominant signal
- Gemini: Northwestern is favored by 7 points
- Grok: Northwestern 4-1 record vs Michigan State 2-4
- GPT: Northwestern has the better record in the evidence package: 4-1 vs 2-4.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Northwestern Wildcats · 72.0%
DraftKings lists Northwestern as a 7-point favorite despite playing on the road at Spartan Stadium, which is a strong market signal. That is corroborated by the records (NU 4-1 and ranked No. 25 vs MSU 2-4). A 7-point spread historically converts to roughly a 70-75% win probability; I shade slightly toward the lower end because road favorites in hostile Big Ten environments carry added variance and the total (49.5) is moderate rather than low, allowing somewhat more scoring volatility. No injury or efficiency data is available to adjust further, so I stay near the market-implied baseline.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 15, 12:08 PM PDTGemini · Northwestern Wildcats · 72.5%
Northwestern is a 7-point road favorite, ranked #25 with a 4-1 record, while Michigan State is unranked at 2-4. A 7-point spread typically translates to roughly a 70-75% implied probability of winning.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 15, 12:08 PM PDTGrok · Northwestern Wildcats · 62.0%
Northwestern enters with a 4-1 record and #25 ranking while Michigan State is 2-4 and unranked. The DraftKings market line lists NU as a 7-point road favorite at Spartan Stadium, supplying the strongest comparative signal. Venue is home for MSU but does not override the record, ranking, and spread evidence favoring Northwestern.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 15, 12:08 PM PDTGPT · Northwestern Wildcats · 69.0%
Northwestern is the stronger side in the supplied evidence package: a 4-1 record versus Michigan State's 2-4, a #25 ranking for Northwestern while Michigan State is unranked, and the only market signal listed makes Northwestern a 7-point favorite. Those are aligned comparative indicators and outweigh Michigan State's home venue at Spartan Stadium. Because the evidence package lacks injury, roster, and efficiency detail, the estimate should stay bounded rather than extreme, but Northwestern is the clear evidence-based favorite.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 15, 12:08 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No injury, availability, or depth-chart information supplied
- No advanced efficiency, strength-of-schedule, or opponent-quality context for either record
- Single sportsbook line with no line-movement history
- No weather or travel details
- Rankings provided for only one team (poll type unspecified)
- Missing advanced efficiency metrics
- No injury reports or depth chart information
- Weather conditions are unknown
What to watch next
Wait for the official result. The locked forecast stays unchanged.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 13.5 percentage points higher for Northwestern Wildcats
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
7f4f944fd9eebc3cf8cdefe15c2bdf1112a3c506f6fa877df0cf3d31753ace88 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
43972197495ca3ac59ad64c867e1f592ba4a3a1c89f23c313c43e26d39949848
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
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