Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsMLB · Sep 13, 11:15 AM PDT FORECASTSt. Louis Cardinals RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Chicago White Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals
63.1%St. Louis Cardinals
LOCKED Sep 13, 10:16 AM PDT4/4 independent models select St. Louis Cardinals; all four oriented probabilities average 63.13%.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Starter mismatch: McGreevy 3.92 ERA / 1.25 WHIP vs Sandlin 6.93 ERA / 1.38 WHIP
- Gemini: Starting pitching advantage for St. Louis (McGreevy 3.92 ERA vs Sandlin 6.93 ERA)
- Grok: Home starter Michael McGreevy season ERA 3.92 and WHIP 1.25 vs Sandlin 6.93/1.38
- GPT: Cardinals are at home with a slightly better overall record (86-85 vs 85-85).
Read all four model reports
Claude · St. Louis Cardinals · 66.0%
The clearest edge in the supplied package is the starting pitching gap. Michael McGreevy carries a 3.92 season ERA and 1.25 WHIP versus David Sandlin's 6.93 ERA and 1.38 WHIP, a difference of roughly three runs of season-long run prevention. St. Louis also hits better in both recent windows (5.5 runs per game over the last 6, 5.39 over the last 28) than Chicago (4.0 and 4.29), and the Cardinals hold home-field advantage with an essentially identical team record (86-85 vs 85-85). Two factors trim the margin: McGreevy's most recent 30-day form is notably worse than his season line (5.14 ERA, 1.39 WHIP), and Chicago has more rested bullpen arms (4 available vs 3), which matters if the game stays close late. The park run factor of 0.937 slightly suppresses scoring, which marginally compresses the gap between a strong and a weak offense and modestly helps the underdog; the weather factor of 1
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 13, 10:15 AM PDTGemini · St. Louis Cardinals · 62.5%
The St. Louis Cardinals have a clear advantage in this matchup, primarily driven by the starting pitching disparity. Michael McGreevy has been solid with a 3.92 season ERA, whereas David Sandlin has struggled significantly, posting a 6.93 ERA. Furthermore, the Cardinals' offense has outperformed the White Sox over both the last 7 and 30 days, averaging over 5 runs per game in both spans.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 13, 10:15 AM PDTGrok · St. Louis Cardinals · 61.0%
Home team Cardinals hold a modest edge via superior starter ERA (3.92 vs 6.93) and stronger recent offense (5.5 vs 4.0 runs per game over last 7). Both clubs enter with nearly identical records and the park slightly suppresses scoring, but the combination of home pitching and lineup stability favors the Cardinals in a close contest.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 13, 10:15 AM PDTGPT · St. Louis Cardinals · 63.0%
St. Louis has the stronger case from the supplied snapshot. The biggest edge is the probable starting pitching matchup: Michael McGreevy has a clearly better full-season ERA/WHIP (3.92, 1.25) than David Sandlin (6.93, 1.38). The Cardinals also have the better recent offensive production, scoring 5.5 runs per game over their last 6 games and 5.393 over their last 28, versus 4.0 and 4.286 for the White Sox. Team records are nearly even, so this looks more like a modest home-and-matchup edge than a major gap, but the combination of home field, better recent offense, and the stronger season-long starter profile points to St. Louis.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 13, 10:15 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Probable pitchers are not guaranteed to start; a late scratch would invalidate the primary edge in this read.
- Sandlin has no 30-day ERA or WHIP in the package, so I cannot tell whether his ugly season line reflects current form or a small/rough sample.
- No innings-pitched or batters-faced counts are provided, so I cannot weight the reliability of any of the ERA/WHIP figures.
- Lineups are listed as confirmed but the package reports only counts of changes (4 away, 2 home) without naming players, so I cannot assess whether key bats are in or out.
- Bullpen availability is given only as a raw count of arms, with no indication of reliever quality, leverage roles, or recent workload.
- No head-to-head history, no team-level splits against left- or right-handed pitching, and no injury list are included.
- David Sandlin has no pitching data for the last 30 days, making his current form difficult to evaluate.
- Bullpen availability is provided, but specific relief pitcher performance metrics are missing.
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
0de307c2cf13e7561ee2ce953973b90f9fc000f78bfb987c5896df2c1ca27a91 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
493735b001c88fa782ba1a9c83b511f680b5a882182d67a850c81d8d16fdea0a
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
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Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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Recorded outcome: Chicago White Sox 1, St. Louis Cardinals 3
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