Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Sep 20, 10:00 AM PDT FORECASTGreen Bay Packers RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Green Bay Packers vs New York Jets
61.0%Green Bay Packers
LOCKED Sep 20, 9:30 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Green Bay Packers; all four oriented probabilities average 61%.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: DraftKings line GB -3.5 makes Green Bay a road favorite, implying roughly 63-65% win probability
- Gemini: Market spread favors Green Bay by 3.5 points
- Grok: DraftKings spread GB -3.5
- GPT: DraftKings lists Green Bay as a 3.5-point favorite
Read all four model reports
Claude · Green Bay Packers · 64.0%
The only direct comparative signal is the DraftKings line of GB -3.5 with Green Bay favored on the road, which implies roughly a 63-65% win probability for the Packers after typical vig adjustment. Road favorites of this size are meaningfully stronger teams in market terms, and the market embeds roster, form, and situational information not otherwise itemized here. The early-season records (GB 0-1, NYJ 1-0) are a single-game sample and are outweighed by the pricing signal. The modest total (44.5) suggests a somewhat lower-scoring game, which slightly compresses favorite equity, so I stay near the line-implied figure rather than above it.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 16, 11:00 AM PDTGemini · Green Bay Packers · 64.0%
The Green Bay Packers are favored by 3.5 points on the road against the New York Jets. A 3.5-point spread typically implies a win probability of approximately 63-65%, indicating the market expects the Packers to win despite their 0-1 start compared to the Jets' 1-0 record.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 16, 11:00 AM PDTGrok · Green Bay Packers · 58.0%
The only comparative evidence is the DraftKings market line listing GB as a 3.5-point road favorite. In NFL markets a 3.5-point spread typically maps to a 57-60% win probability for the favorite. Early-season records (GB 0-1, NYJ 1-0) add negligible signal. No injury or QB data is supplied, and the game is still four days away, so the market line remains the dominant usable input.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 16, 11:00 AM PDTGPT · Green Bay Packers · 58.0%
The strongest comparative evidence in the package is the market spread: Green Bay is favored by 3.5 points on the road at New York. A road favorite of more than a field goal generally implies the away team is meaningfully more likely to win outright, even after accounting for home-field advantage. The only other comparative team evidence is the current record snapshot (Packers 0-1, Jets 1-0), but in Week 2 that is a very small sample and is less predictive than the market number. With no usable quarterback, weather, or injury advantages documented in the package, the spread should carry the most weight. That supports Green Bay as the more likely winner, but not overwhelmingly so because this is still an NFL road game against a team that is 1-0 at home.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 16, 11:00 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No moneyline odds provided; probability derived from the spread alone
- Injury lists are empty for both teams, which may reflect unpublished status reports rather than full health
- No quarterback or depth-chart detail supplied
- Weather data is null for an outdoor stadium in September
- Only Week 2 records available, giving minimal form or efficiency information
- Line is from a single provider with no timestamp on movement
- No moneyline odds provided
- No injury reports available
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
1f1a78f9c07a433786b80e28ad5f297bfbe122b5ef271f2216f15bcb50c39a8a - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
4a4a0bde73a222f5423397589ed18f0eeb959e0d7f407d7297af8c785bac2c2d
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Green Bay Packers 20, New York Jets 17
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