Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 10, 9:00 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTIndiana Hoosiers RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs Indiana Hoosiers
71.8%Indiana Hoosiers
LOCKED Oct 10, 8:31 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Indiana Hoosiers; all four oriented probabilities average 71.75%.
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16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: DraftKings line IU -8.5 on the road, implying a clear talent/efficiency edge
- Gemini: Indiana is favored by 8.5 points on the road.
- GPT: Both teams are 5-0, so records do not separate them.
- Grok: Both teams 5-0 entering the game
Read all four model reports
Claude · Indiana Hoosiers · 78.0%
Both teams are 5-0, but the market is the sharpest supplied signal: DraftKings lists Indiana -8.5 despite the game being in Lincoln, implying a notably stronger team on a neutral basis (roughly 11-12 points better after removing typical home-field value). Indiana is also ranked No. 7 nationally while Nebraska is unranked, corroborating the line. Historical conversion of an 8.5-point spread with a 48.5 total maps to roughly a 77-80% win probability for the favorite. I shade slightly toward the lower end given road environment variance, a noon kickoff, and the absence of injury/efficiency data that could alter the picture.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 10, 1:38 AM PDTGemini · Indiana Hoosiers · 75.0%
Indiana is an 8.5-point road favorite against Nebraska. Both teams are 5-0, but Indiana is ranked #7 while Nebraska is unranked. The market line of -8.5 implies a win probability of approximately 75% for the Hoosiers despite playing on the road.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 10, 1:38 AM PDTGPT · Indiana Hoosiers · 67.0%
Indiana is the evidence-based favorite. Both teams are 5-0, so win-loss record alone is neutral. The strongest comparative signal in the package is the market line: DraftKings lists Indiana -8.5, which implies Indiana is meaningfully stronger even though the game is at Nebraska's home venue in Lincoln. Indiana also carries the only supplied ranking (#7), which supports the market signal. Nebraska's home field is a real counterweight and keeps this from being a very high-certainty forecast, but with equal records and the Hoosiers still favored by more than a touchdown on the road, Indiana should be favored to win outright.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 10, 1:38 AM PDTGrok · Indiana Hoosiers · 67.0%
Both teams enter 5-0, but Indiana holds the #7 ranking while Nebraska is unranked. The DraftKings market line shows Indiana favored by 8.5 points on the road at Nebraska's home venue, supplying the only direct comparative signal. Home-field advantage for Nebraska narrows the implied margin but does not overcome the ranking and spread differential in the supplied facts.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 10, 1:38 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No injury, availability, or depth-chart information supplied
- No advanced efficiency, strength-of-schedule, or point-differential data
- No information on quality of each team's 5-0 opponents
- Single market provider and single price snapshot; no line movement history
- Weather and other game-day conditions unknown
- No advanced statistics or efficiency metrics are provided.
- No injury reports or depth chart changes are available.
- Weather conditions are unknown.
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 3.0 percentage points lower for Indiana Hoosiers
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
69a9136716fbd19c030544beb0771563c5a2892a67c6cdc79970088e9541a6e4 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
7e7a7251d1b05c5713092c33e01a44497a2807c3bce61f517a78cb3ff411609f
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Final
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