Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 10, 12:30 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTNavy Midshipmen RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Navy Midshipmen vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane
58.6%Navy Midshipmen
LOCKED Oct 10, 12:01 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Navy Midshipmen; all four oriented probabilities average 58.63%.
Check the evidence
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- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
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15 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Navy is a 3-point favorite according to the market line
- Claude: DraftKings line Navy -3 implies roughly 59-62% win probability for Navy
- Grok: Navy favored by 3 at home
- GPT: DraftKings market line lists Navy -3, indicating Navy as the expected winner by a small margin
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Navy Midshipmen · 59.5%
Navy is favored by 3 points at home despite having a worse straight-up record (1-3) than Tulsa (3-2). The market line suggests Navy is the stronger team, and home-field advantage at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium further supports their status as the favorite. A 3-point spread typically translates to roughly a 58-61% win probability.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 10, 8:08 AM PDTClaude · Navy Midshipmen · 60.0%
The only direct comparative signal is the DraftKings line of Navy -3 at home, which is the most informative single input and implies roughly a 59-62% win probability for the favorite after accounting for the push/key-number distribution around 3. Records cut the other way (Navy 1-3 vs Tulsa 3-2), but the market has already digested those records plus roster and efficiency information unavailable here, so I anchor on the line and shade only marginally rather than overriding it. Home-field at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium is embedded in the spread. I settle near 60%, slightly below a pure line-implied figure given the discordant win-loss records.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 10, 8:08 AM PDTGrok · Navy Midshipmen · 57.0%
Navy hosts Tulsa at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium and is favored by 3 points per the DraftKings market line despite a 1-3 record versus Tulsa's 3-2. Home-field advantage and the spread together supply the primary comparative signal that Navy is the slight favorite. No rankings are available and the over/under of 47.5 offers no direct win-probability input.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 10, 8:08 AM PDTGPT · Navy Midshipmen · 58.0%
Navy is the narrow favorite on the supplied market line (Navy -3) and has home field at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium. Those are the strongest comparative signals in the evidence package. Tulsa’s better record (3-2 vs 1-3) pushes back against a stronger Navy lean, so the most evidence-bounded estimate is a modest edge rather than a high-probability projection. With no rankings and no additional performance or injury context allowed, a mid-to-high 50s estimate for Navy is the best calibrated read from the immutable facts provided.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 10, 8:08 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No advanced efficiency metrics provided
- Missing injury and depth chart information
- Weather conditions are unknown
- No injury, availability, or depth-chart information supplied
- No advanced efficiency, strength-of-schedule, or scoring-margin data
- Records given without opponent quality context; Navy's 1-3 may reflect a tough slate
- Single market provider with no line-movement history or closing-line context
- No weather or travel detail for the October 10 kickoff
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
ad9b5547df30f376305f69833a96a07a29237feb7509acdab71c069ea0309704 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
26e0c236e03e680d9112d584f74ec3abfa2cba05688d09a14ed28fb295c86ef7
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Final
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