Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 17, 12:30 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTAdam Walton RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK76.8% Simple average76.8% Calibrated average79.2% Kalshi81.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Beibit Zhukayev vs Adam Walton
76.8%Adam Walton
LOCKED Oct 17, 12:00 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Adam Walton; all four oriented probabilities average 76.75%.
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A documented difference, its timing, and limits.
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18 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Walton ranked ATP No. 98 with 630 ranking points; Zhukayev has no supplied rank or points
- Gemini: Adam Walton is ranked 98th globally.
- GPT: Adam Walton has the only explicit current rank supplied: ATP No. 98.
- Grok: Walton ATP rank 98 vs Zhukayev unranked
Read all four model reports
Claude · Adam Walton · 72.0%
Walton is the only player with a supplied ATP ranking (No. 98, 630 points, previously 97), while Zhukayev has no listed rank or ranking points and a 0-0 season singles record in the supplied data, which typically indicates a player outside the main-draw tour level (likely a lower-ranked or wildcard entrant). Ranking is historically the single strongest supplied discriminator in tennis, so Walton should be favored. Offsetting factors that cap the edge: Walton's own 9-18 season record is poor, the match is a qualifying first round where top-100 entrants are unusual, and Zhukayev is a home player in Almaty, Kazakhstan. Surface-specific form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are all explicitly unavailable in this evidence package, so the estimate is deliberately moderate rather than strongly lopsided.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 16, 7:35 PM PDTGemini · Adam Walton · 80.0%
Adam Walton is an established top 100 player, currently ranked 98th with 9 singles wins on the ATP tour this season. Beibit Zhukayev has no current ranking or season record provided in the evidence, suggesting he has not competed or won at the ATP level this season. While Zhukayev may benefit from a home-country advantage in Kazakhstan, Walton's proven tour-level experience makes him the clear favorite. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 16, 7:35 PM PDTGPT · Adam Walton · 77.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, Adam Walton is the stronger side. He has an explicit current ATP rank of No. 98 with 630 ranking points, while Beibit Zhukayev has no current rank supplied and a 0-0 season singles record in the package. Walton also has a documented 2026 singles record of 9-18, which is not strong in absolute terms but still provides evidence that he has competed and maintained a top-100 ranking. Because the evidence scope is intentionally narrow and gives no usable current ranking or season match sample for Zhukayev beyond 0-0, Walton should be favored on demonstrated standing alone. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the evidence package, so the estimate should not be pushed too high despite Walton's clear evidence edge.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 16, 7:35 PM PDTGrok · Adam Walton · 78.0%
Adam Walton holds an explicit ATP rank of 98 with 630 ranking points and a 9-18 season singles record. Beibit Zhukayev has null rank, null ranking points, and a 0-0 record. No surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, or market odds are supplied in the evidence package, so the forecast relies solely on the supplied ranking and win-loss data.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 16, 7:35 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface-specific form unavailable
- Injury/fitness status unavailable
- Head-to-head record unavailable
- Travel/scheduling and rest unavailable
- Market odds unavailable
- Zhukayev's rank is null, so his true level can only be inferred, not measured
- Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
- Zhukayev's lack of ranking and record data limits the ability to assess his true competitive level.
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Probability unchanged
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
c636df3fdf2ee1859fb705b79c8286c673313a7159ceb4964318e9379b075fab - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
5a8ebd7273b95fa466291085310c48e62b6ea46079e03b91d90622939962fc04
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Adam Walton. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 17, 12:00 AM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 16, 11:55 PM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 17, 12:00 AM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
3b5b3de08f6d47bf718fbf99ecb07e1895aee40465f3d4143f50fee944578e16Available source context
site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Adam Walton (AUS) bt Beibit Zhukayev (KAZ) 6-1 7-5
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