Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 10, 12:30 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTNotre Dame Fighting Irish RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Stanford Cardinal
97.6%Notre Dame Fighting Irish
LOCKED Oct 10, 12:01 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Notre Dame Fighting Irish; all four oriented probabilities average 97.63%.
Check the evidence
The most important gap and your next source check.
- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
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15 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Notre Dame's 5-0 record and #3 ranking
- GPT: Record gap: Notre Dame 5-0 vs Stanford 2-3
- Claude: Market line ND -40.5 implies ~98-99% implied win probability for the favorite
- Grok: Notre Dame 5-0 record and #3 ranking
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Notre Dame Fighting Irish · 99.5%
Notre Dame is undefeated, ranked #3 in the nation, and playing at home against a 2-3 Stanford team. The massive -40.5 point spread strongly indicates an overwhelming probability of a Notre Dame victory.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 10, 7:53 AM PDTGPT · Notre Dame Fighting Irish · 97.0%
Notre Dame has every supplied comparative signal: an undefeated 5-0 record versus Stanford at 2-3, a No. 3 ranking versus Stanford unranked, home field at Notre Dame Stadium, and an extremely large market line of Notre Dame -40.5. A spread of that size in FBS implies a very strong expected win likelihood for the favorite, and it is consistent with the record and ranking gap. Using only the provided evidence, Notre Dame is an overwhelming favorite to win outright.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 10, 7:53 AM PDTClaude · Notre Dame Fighting Irish · 98.0%
Notre Dame is 5-0, ranked #3 nationally, playing at home against a 2-3 unranked Stanford team. The DraftKings line of ND -40.5 is one of the largest spreads seen in FBS play and implies a near-certain favorite; historically, home favorites of 35+ points win well over 97% of the time. The total of 55.5 with a 40.5 spread implies an expected score near 48-8, consistent with a massive talent and efficiency gap. Only catastrophic variance (multiple turnovers, injury to key personnel, extreme weather) realistically produces an upset.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 10, 7:53 AM PDTGrok · Notre Dame Fighting Irish · 96.0%
Notre Dame enters at 5-0 with a #3 ranking and is a 40.5-point home favorite against a 2-3 Stanford team. The massive spread, record gap, and home venue create an extreme mismatch with no supplied counter-evidence. Historical FBS outcomes at this spread differential support win probabilities above 95 percent for the favorite.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 10, 7:53 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Missing advanced team efficiency metrics
- No injury reports or depth chart changes provided
- Weather conditions at Notre Dame Stadium are unknown
- The evidence package does not include injuries, suspensions, or late roster availability
- No advanced efficiency metrics, strength-of-schedule data, or matchup-specific statistics are provided
- No direct head-to-head or recent performance details beyond current records are supplied
- Probability is inferred from the supplied market line and basic team indicators, not from a full predictive model
- Point-in-time estimate only, based on data_current_at 2026-10-10T14:53:08.404Z
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 0.3 percentage points higher for Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
dd0bb07b02cc70bead800a784665b7afc03c979f0b4d1ebdca1c4fffdc3fd630 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
4bfd79bc3299288e7e137b1eb1c459b45a31fbe41c98b100b68294039ce84dce
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Final
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