Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 9, 1:45 AM PDT FORECASTKaren Khachanov RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK58.0% Simple average58.0% Calibrated average58.7% Kalshi69.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Arthur Fery vs Karen Khachanov
58.0%Karen Khachanov
LOCKED Oct 9, 12:30 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Karen Khachanov; all four oriented probabilities average 58%.
22 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Khachanov higher ranked (27 vs 37) with 1900 vs 1413 points
- Gemini: Khachanov's higher ranking (27 vs 37)
- Grok: Current rank: Khachanov 27, Fery 37
- GPT: Karen Khachanov is ranked No. 27 versus Arthur Fery at No. 37.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Karen Khachanov · 56.0%
Only two evidence dimensions are supplied: current ranking and season win-loss. Khachanov is ranked 27 (1900 points, stable from 27) versus Fery at 37 (1413 points, slipping from 36), a modest ten-place edge that historically translates to only a small win-probability advantage. Fery's season record (15-8, 65%) is actually better than Khachanov's (21-19, 52.5%), which partially offsets the ranking gap, though Khachanov's larger match volume suggests deeper draws and tougher opposition at Masters level. Netting these, Khachanov is a slight favorite rather than a clear one. Surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head history, travel/rest, and market odds are all unavailable, so the estimate stays close to the ranking baseline with wide uncertainty.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 8, 11:30 PM PDTGemini · Karen Khachanov · 58.0%
Karen Khachanov is ranked 10 places higher than Arthur Fery (27 vs 37) and holds a nearly 500-point advantage in ranking points (1900 vs 1413). However, Fery has a superior season win-loss record (15-8, 65.2%) compared to Khachanov (21-19, 52.5%). Given Khachanov's higher ranking and greater volume of matches played this season, he is the slight favorite, but Fery's strong win rate makes this a competitive matchup. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 8, 11:30 PM PDTGrok · Karen Khachanov · 62.0%
Khachanov holds the superior current rank (27 vs 37) and ranking points (1900 vs 1413). Season singles records show Fery at 15-8 and Khachanov at 21-19. No other differentiating data is supplied. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 8, 11:30 PM PDTGPT · Karen Khachanov · 56.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, Karen Khachanov has the stronger ranking profile (No. 27 vs No. 37) and more ranking points (1900 vs 1413), which is the clearest indicator of underlying player strength available here. Arthur Fery does have the better season win-loss record by winning percentage (15-8, about 65%) compared with Khachanov's 21-19 (about 53%), which narrows the gap and prevents a stronger lean. Balancing the better rank/points for Khachanov against the better season record for Fery, Khachanov remains a modest favorite rather than a decisive one. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the evidence package and therefore cannot be used.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 8, 11:30 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface-specific (hard court) form not supplied
- Injury and fitness status unavailable
- No head-to-head record provided
- Travel, rest days, and scheduling unknown
- Market odds not supplied, so no price anchor
- Quality of opposition behind win-loss records unknown
- Surface form is unavailable
- Injuries are unavailable
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 2.0 percentage points higher for Karen Khachanov
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
26ccdfc70c19d191f53d31db2c85c6063b41cab9c9f71b2ad4accf54b235b3d8 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
e21706dbc7ebb453a055dddf4594eaa299bc63d4837c10c4db144474f2795e56
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Karen Khachanov. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 9, 12:30 AM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 9, 12:25 AM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 9, 12:34 AM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
d4209703905d76e5aebcd90753c00a1462ea0bc213022fb5fb7c4b8f8874e8c0Available source context
site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗site.api.espn.com ↗
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: (26) Karen Khachanov (RUS) bt Arthur Fery (GBR) 7-6 (8-6) 6-7 (5-7) 7-6 (7-2)
Finish your review
Record whether this brief helped, how long the review took, and your next action.
Use this brief for a review →