Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 15, 2:50 AM PDT FORECASTJasmine Paolini RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK59.5% Simple average59.5% Calibrated average60.4% Kalshi56.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Sonay Kartal vs Jasmine Paolini
59.5%Jasmine Paolini
LOCKED Oct 14, 10:30 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Jasmine Paolini; all four oriented probabilities average 59.5%.
19 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Jasmine Paolini is ranked 33rd in the world.
- Grok: Paolini explicit rank 33 and 1528 points versus Kartal null values
- Claude: Paolini has an explicit rank (33, 1528 points); Kartal's rank is null and cannot be compared directly
- GPT: Jasmine Paolini has an explicit current rank of No. 33.
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Jasmine Paolini · 65.0%
Jasmine Paolini holds a solid WTA ranking of 33, indicating consistent performance on the main tour. While Sonay Kartal has a better win-loss record this season (14-7 compared to Paolini's 17-15), Kartal's lack of a provided ranking suggests she may have accumulated these wins at lower-tier events. However, reaching the third round of the Wuhan Open indicates Kartal is in good form. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable, which limits the confidence of this forecast.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 14, 8:52 PM PDTGrok · Jasmine Paolini · 60.0%
Jasmine Paolini holds an explicit WTA rank of 33 with 1528 ranking points while Sonay Kartal has null rank and points. Paolini's 2026 singles record is 17-15 versus Kartal's 14-7. The evidence package supplies only these ranking and win-loss facts; surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 14, 8:52 PM PDTClaude · Jasmine Paolini · 55.0%
Only two usable signals exist: Paolini carries an explicit current ESPN rank of 33 (1528 points) while Kartal's rank is unsupplied, and the season win-loss records are 14-7 for Kartal (.667) versus 17-15 for Paolini (.531). Paolini's ranked status and larger match volume at presumably higher-tier events imply a stronger baseline level, which is why she is the modest favorite in a WTA 1000 Round 3. That edge is tempered by her ranking slide from 20 to 33 and the sub-.550 record, against Kartal's better win rate. Surface-specific form, injuries, head-to-head history, travel/scheduling, and market odds are all unavailable in this evidence package, so the estimate stays close to a coin flip.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 14, 8:52 PM PDTGPT · Jasmine Paolini · 58.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, Jasmine Paolini is the narrower favorite. The strongest fact is her explicit current WTA rank of 33, while Sonay Kartal has no current rank supplied. Kartal does have the better season win-loss record in the package (14-7, about a .667 win rate) versus Paolini's 17-15 (about a .531 win rate), which materially offsets Paolini's ranking edge. Because the evidence scope is intentionally limited to current ranking and season singles record only, the estimate should stay modest rather than decisive. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable here, so they cannot strengthen or weaken either side. Balancing Paolini's proven ranking advantage against Kartal's stronger season record, Paolini gets a small edge.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 14, 8:52 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
- The lack of ranking data for Sonay Kartal limits the ability to accurately gauge her typical competition level.
- surface form unavailable
- injuries unavailable
- head-to-head unavailable
- travel unavailable
- market odds unavailable
- Surface-specific (hard-court) form not supplied
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 3.0 percentage points lower for Jasmine Paolini
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
5e07a995553d58244f7daf3dce73f8564f4e4d3dd1eca02469dc72a70e5cc0b5 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
b59aaf87d6d4a1dea1d21111ef28311697bf03cf66ac6dd43dc4ff1353bf6b90
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Jasmine Paolini. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 14, 10:30 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 14, 10:25 PM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 14, 10:34 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
e0b218ea242468452593e4b975de24d4eeb804879f9e32f811201e42306696e5Available source context
site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗site.api.espn.com ↗
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Sonay Kartal (GBR) bt (15) Jasmine Paolini (ITA) 6-2 6-0
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