Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsMMA · Oct 17, 2:00 PM PDT FORECASTErin Blanchfield RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Erin Blanchfield vs Jasmine Jasudavicius
67.9%Erin Blanchfield
NOT LOCKEDAll four probabilities, converted to the same fighter, average 67.88% for Erin Blanchfield. 4/4 models select this fighter.
15 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Blanchfield output and submission threat edge
- Gemini: Blanchfield's higher striking volume (5.24 vs 3.47 SLpM) and better striking defense (59% vs 52%).
- GPT: Blanchfield's recent wins include Rose Namajunas, Tracy Cortez, Taila Santos, and Jessica Andrade
- Grok: Blanchfield superior recent wins over Namajunas and Santos
Read all four model reports
Claude · Erin Blanchfield · 74.0%
Blanchfield is the higher-level grappler and striker by the numbers (5.24 vs 3.47 landed per minute, 59 vs 52 defense, 78 percent takedown defense) and is coming off a submission of Tracy Cortez. Jasudavicius is older, lower output, and was stopped by Fiorot.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 17, 9:19 AM PDTGemini · Erin Blanchfield · 67.5%
Erin Blanchfield possesses a higher striking volume and superior defensive metrics compared to Jasmine Jasudavicius. Both fighters share common opponents, notably Manon Fiorot and Jessica Andrade. While both defeated Andrade, Blanchfield demonstrated greater durability by taking Fiorot to a five-round decision, whereas Jasudavicius suffered a first-round TKO loss to her. The bout was added roughly 15 days before the event, introducing short-notice variance that slightly compresses the probability toward a coin flip. However, Blanchfield's relentless pace, submission threat, and proven cardio in high-level matchups give her a distinct advantage.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 17, 9:19 AM PDTGPT · Erin Blanchfield · 63.0%
Blanchfield has the stronger pre-event case based on the supplied evidence. Her recent results are against a slightly stronger-looking set of opponents and include a five-round win over Rose Namajunas plus wins over Tracy Cortez, Taila Santos, and Jessica Andrade, with her only recent loss a decision to Manon Fiorot. Jasudavicius has also been in strong form, winning four of five, but she was stopped quickly by Fiorot and her best recent wins are less consistently elite on this record set. Statistically, Blanchfield shows the higher offensive output on the feet (5.24 landed per minute vs 3.47) with better strike defense (59% vs 52%), while also carrying a credible submission threat. Jasudavicius appears to have the size edge at 5'7" to 5'4" and solid overall grappling volume, but Blanchfield's combination of higher-level recent success and more complete statistical profile gives her the,
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 17, 9:18 AM PDTGrok · Erin Blanchfield · 67.0%
Blanchfield holds a clear edge in recent opponent quality and finishing ability, with unanimous decision wins over Rose Namajunas and Taila Santos plus two rear-naked choke finishes. Her striking volume (5.24 LPM) and takedown defense (78%) exceed Jasudavicius metrics while maintaining comparable accuracy. Jasudavicius shows solid submission wins but lower output and a first-round TKO loss to the same Fiorot who went the distance with Blanchfield. Both made weight cleanly with the bout added late but no other disruptions verified.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 17, 9:18 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No licensed pre-event odds supplied
- Bout added about 15 days out, camp length unverified for both
- Blanchfield roughly 11-month layoff; no injury or camp detail verified
- Reach and stance data are missing for both fighters.
- Licensed pre-event odds are not connected.
- The short-notice nature of the bout obscures the extent of both fighters' camp preparations.
- Jasudavicius's recorded 3% takedown accuracy appears anomalously low and may misrepresent her actual grappling effectiveness.
- No reach or stance data for either fighter
What to watch next
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- First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
1a26db32f337eca0b19f76e2889e47e1b212ef3514fc972e7b79b9c5625292bf
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
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