Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Oct 4, 10:00 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTHouston Texans RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK57.1% Simple average57.1% Calibrated average57.8% Kalshi58.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Texans
57.1%Houston Texans
LOCKED Oct 4, 9:30 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Houston Texans; all four oriented probabilities average 57.13%.
Check the evidence
The most important gap and your next source check.
- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: DraftKings line HOU -3 implies Houston is the market favorite at roughly 57-60%
- Grok: Houston home game at Reliant Stadium
- Gemini: Houston is favored by 3 points.
- GPT: DraftKings lists Houston as a 3-point home favorite (HOU -3), the strongest comparative signal in the package.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Houston Texans · 58.0%
The only pricing signal in the package is DraftKings listing Houston at -3 at home, which typically converts to roughly a 57-60% win probability for the favorite. Records slightly favor Dallas (1-2 vs 0-3), but a 3-point home line already reflects the market's view of team strength, home field, and any known availability, and market lines generally outperform raw early-season records as predictors. I therefore anchor near the market with a modest haircut toward the coin flip because Houston is winless and no injury or quarterback detail is supplied to confirm the line's assumptions.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 30, 2:50 PM PDTGrok · Houston Texans · 53.0%
Houston hosts the game at Reliant Stadium and enters as a 3-point favorite per the DraftKings market line. Dallas holds a 1-2 record while Houston is 0-3, but the home status and spread together supply the only comparative signal available. No quarterback, injury, or advanced metric data exists in the package to override the line.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 30, 2:50 PM PDTGemini · Houston Texans · 59.5%
The Houston Texans are 3-point home favorites against the Dallas Cowboys. A -3 point spread typically translates to a win probability of approximately 58-61% for the favorite. Despite their 0-3 record compared to Dallas's 1-2, the market favors Houston, likely factoring in home-field advantage at Reliant Stadium.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 30, 2:50 PM PDTGPT · Houston Texans · 58.0%
The best immutable comparative evidence points slightly toward Houston. The strongest signal in the package is the market line of Houston -3 at home, which typically implies a modest but clear edge for the Texans. Team records provide only weak support either way: Dallas is 1-2 and Houston is 0-3, so Houston’s record is worse, but early-season records over three games are less informative than an actual game line. With no usable injury or quarterback detail beyond empty injury lists, the market spread is the primary basis for the estimate. Balancing Houston’s home-field and market favoritism against its worse record yields a moderate Houston win probability rather than a strong one.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 30, 2:50 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No moneyline prices provided, so implied probability is derived from the spread alone
- Both injury lists are empty, which likely reflects incomplete reporting rather than full health
- No starting quarterback confirmation for either team
- No weather data supplied for the venue
- No efficiency, scoring, or strength-of-schedule metrics included beyond win-loss records
- Data current as of 2026-09-30, four days before kickoff; line and status could move
- No injury reports or quarterback details supplied
- Records reflect only three weeks of 2026 season
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 1.1 percentage points higher for Houston Texans
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
b23c34fb0ceea49aa42aeceda25e359b17f4a961edc5ce9d2eefa8badee9d847 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
e0fd0b5ce95505b47990112fb2d31e9ab32fc25c970f52f2ae6cb21240a27baa
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Houston Texans. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 4, 9:30 AM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 4, 9:25 AM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 4, 9:34 AM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
7a67c22c5a94fef86c4561dc2328927e82b17f9ca95fb7f1b8f3f773a41ffc22Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Dallas Cowboys 34, Houston Texans 30
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