Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 17, 1:15 AM PDT FORECASTMayar Sherif RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK67.8% Simple average67.8% Calibrated average69.4% Kalshi29.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Tatiana Prozorova vs Mayar Sherif
67.8%Mayar Sherif
LOCKED Oct 17, 12:00 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Mayar Sherif; all four oriented probabilities average 67.75%.
20 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Mayar Sherif is ranked 52nd, 65 places higher than Tatiana Prozorova at 117th.
- Grok: Current rank gap favors Sherif (52 over 117)
- Claude: Rank gap: Sherif 52 vs Prozorova 117
- GPT: Current ranking favors Mayar Sherif: 52 vs 117
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Mayar Sherif · 72.0%
Mayar Sherif holds a significant ranking advantage over Tatiana Prozorova (52 vs 117) and has nearly double the ranking points (1077 vs 634). Sherif also has a proven season record of 33-18 with one title, whereas Prozorova's season record is unavailable. This points gap and proven form make Sherif the clear favorite, though the lack of surface-specific data and Prozorova's match record limits confidence.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 16, 7:40 PM PDTGrok · Mayar Sherif · 68.0%
Mayar Sherif holds the superior current rank (52 vs 117) and ranking points (1077 vs 634) with a documented 33-18 season record and one title; Tatiana Prozorova lacks any supplied win-loss data. This ranking differential supports selecting Sherif as the stronger favorite in a best-evidence estimate. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 16, 7:40 PM PDTClaude · Mayar Sherif · 62.0%
Only ranking and season record evidence is supplied. Sherif is ranked 52 with 1077 points versus Prozorova at 117 with 634 points, a gap of roughly 65 places that typically translates to a moderate favorite status. Sherif also has a documented 33-18 season record with one title, while Prozorova's season win-loss is not reported, so form comparison is incomplete. Prozorova's slight ranking improvement (123 to 117) suggests mild upward trend but from a lower base. Surface-specific form, injuries, head-to-head, travel/fatigue, and market odds are all unavailable, which caps confidence. A qualifying-round meeting where a top-60 player is entering qualifying also adds uncertainty about her current condition or entry circumstances.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 16, 7:40 PM PDTGPT · Mayar Sherif · 69.0%
Using only the supplied immutable evidence, Mayar Sherif is the stronger side. She holds a substantially better current ranking (52 vs 117) and far more ranking points (1077 vs 634). She also has an explicit 2026 singles record of 33-18 with 1 title, while Tatiana Prozorova’s season win-loss record is not supplied, so the comparison on current-season results is incomplete. The ranking gap is large enough to make Sherif the likely winner, but not so overwhelming that this becomes a near-certainty, especially because this is a qualifying match and Prozorova has shown some recent ranking improvement (123 to 117). Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the evidence package.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 16, 7:40 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
- Tatiana Prozorova's season win-loss record is not supplied.
- Surface-specific form unavailable
- Injuries unavailable
- Head-to-head unavailable
- Travel factors unavailable
- Market odds unavailable
- Evidence limited to ESPN ranks and one player's record only
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Probability unchanged
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
7b10ca204a54f93b20f15fa634b90702dd760b8b4b70178deeff3ba0f0faf3a6 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
5ba75a6633fbe35fa8990f3371c82274ec9bf1cb9832f51b9384c1c1f2594f05
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Mayar Sherif. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 17, 12:00 AM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 16, 11:55 PM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 17, 12:00 AM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
3dcfdb5888d02b5d81e9844d27ab9e5962a96741ec521e6daa699c2a948b0febAvailable source context
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These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Tatiana Prozorova (RUS) bt Mayar Sherif (EGY) 4-6 6-1 6-1
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