Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 10, 11:00 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTMiami (OH) RedHawks RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Massachusetts Minutemen vs Miami (OH) RedHawks
68.3%Miami (OH) RedHawks
LOCKED Oct 10, 10:31 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Miami (OH) RedHawks; all four oriented probabilities average 68.25%.
Check the evidence
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- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
18 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Miami (OH) is a 6.5-point road favorite
- Claude: Market line: Miami (OH) -6.5 as a road favorite, implying ~70-74% win probability
- Grok: Market line lists Miami (OH) -6.5
- GPT: DraftKings lists Miami (OH) as a 6.5-point favorite
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Miami (OH) RedHawks · 71.0%
Although Massachusetts holds a superior 4-1 record compared to Miami (OH)'s 2-3 mark, the betting market installs the RedHawks as 6.5-point road favorites. This indicates a significant difference in underlying team strength or schedule difficulty. A 6.5-point spread typically implies a win probability of around 71% for the favorite.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 10, 10:08 AM PDTClaude · Miami (OH) RedHawks · 71.0%
The DraftKings line has Miami (OH) as a 6.5-point road favorite, which is the strongest single comparative signal available. A road favorite of that size implies roughly a 7-9 point neutral-field edge, since the market is already discounting UMass's home field. Historically a -6.5 spread maps to about a 70-74% win probability. The records (UMass 4-1 vs Miami 2-3) superficially favor UMass, but the market's willingness to lay points on the road strongly implies strength-of-schedule and underlying efficiency gaps favoring Miami, consistent with MAC-level roster quality versus UMass's typical FBS standing. I shade slightly toward the lower end of the spread-implied band to respect the record disparity and the home environment.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 10, 10:08 AM PDTGrok · Miami (OH) RedHawks · 63.0%
Miami (OH) enters with a 2-3 record but is installed as a 6.5-point road favorite, implying the market views them as the stronger side. UMass holds the better 4-1 record yet receives no ranking and is an underdog at home. The spread supplies the clearest comparative signal available; converting a 6.5-point margin in FBS typically maps to a 62-65% win probability for the favorite.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 10, 10:08 AM PDTGPT · Miami (OH) RedHawks · 68.0%
The strongest comparative signal in the evidence package is the market line: Miami (OH) is favored by 6.5 points despite playing on the road at Massachusetts. A road favorite of that size typically implies the favored team is meaningfully more likely to win outright. That market signal outweighs the simple win-loss records, which favor Massachusetts 4-1 over Miami (OH) 2-3, because records alone do not capture schedule strength or team quality. With no rankings provided and no injury or efficiency data available, the estimate should lean on the spread while tempering confidence due to limited context.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 10, 10:08 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Missing advanced efficiency metrics
- No strength of schedule data
- Lack of injury and depth chart information
- No injury reports, depth-chart status, or quarterback availability provided
- No advanced efficiency metrics, yards-per-play, or opponent-adjusted ratings supplied
- No strength-of-schedule detail to reconcile the record-versus-line conflict
- Single market provider quoted; no line movement history or consensus to gauge sharp action
- Weather and surface conditions unknown for a potentially low-total October game in New England
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Selection changed from Massachusetts Minutemen to Miami (OH) RedHawks
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
aac965ffb28a72d62c07e50e7d2bbfd75b463eba557c4ae327e4a7a44fb43fa2 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
62641a767fb706b5259b01011a99d56bba2fe56cc5ba3e251ae1f58aac18f90d
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Final
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