Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 10, 12:30 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTEastern Michigan Eagles RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Akron Zips vs Eastern Michigan Eagles
66.8%Eastern Michigan Eagles
LOCKED Oct 10, 12:01 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Eastern Michigan Eagles; all four oriented probabilities average 66.75%.
Check the evidence
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- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
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17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Eastern Michigan is a 5.5-point favorite.
- Claude: DraftKings line EMU -5.5 as road favorite, implying ~70% win probability
- Grok: EMU holds better record (3-3 vs 1-4)
- GPT: Eastern Michigan has the better record: 3-3 versus Akron's 1-4.
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Eastern Michigan Eagles · 68.0%
Eastern Michigan is favored by 5.5 points on the road against Akron. The Eagles have a slightly better record at 3-3 compared to Akron's 1-4. A 5.5-point spread typically translates to roughly a 68% implied win probability for the favorite, even when factoring in Akron's home-field advantage.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 9, 7:37 PM PDTClaude · Eastern Michigan Eagles · 70.0%
DraftKings lists Eastern Michigan as a 5.5-point favorite despite playing on the road at InfoCision Stadium, implying the market sees a clear talent/form edge after accounting for home field (roughly an 8-point neutral-field gap). Records corroborate: EMU 3-3 versus Akron 1-4. Historical conversion of a ~5.5-point spread maps to roughly a 70% win probability for the favorite, and nothing in the supplied evidence (no rankings, no injury data) argues for deviating from that market-anchored baseline.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 9, 7:37 PM PDTGrok · Eastern Michigan Eagles · 65.0%
Eastern Michigan enters with the superior record (3-3 vs Akron's 1-4) and is installed as a 5.5-point road favorite by DraftKings. The market line supplies the clearest comparative signal that EMU is the stronger side despite playing at InfoCision Stadium.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 9, 7:37 PM PDTGPT · Eastern Michigan Eagles · 64.0%
Eastern Michigan has the stronger immutable evidence package at this point in time. The supplied records favor Eastern Michigan (3-3 vs Akron 1-4), and the market line lists EMU as a 5.5-point road favorite at Akron. A favorite of that size in a relatively even conference setting is a meaningful comparative signal and outweighs Akron's home-field location. With no rankings for either team and no injury or efficiency data in scope, the forecast should stay bounded rather than aggressive, but the available evidence supports Eastern Michigan as the more likely winner.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 9, 7:37 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No advanced efficiency metrics provided.
- Missing injury and depth chart information.
- Weather conditions at InfoCision Stadium are unknown.
- No injury, QB availability, or depth-chart information
- No advanced efficiency, strength-of-schedule, or point-differential data
- Single market provider; no line movement or consensus available
- Records given without opponent quality or conference/non-conference split
- Weather and surface conditions unknown
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Probability unchanged
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
fd6757fe95c51e9dc32e70fe9417ce10f3e94107a250dd8690d6b4ed27cdd04c - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
395a69bb47ca5fb02e7828fe1252e02e90cd8b1ace6be5667cbe1875ec56b317
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Final
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