Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 10, 4:30 PM PDT FORECASTVirginia Cavaliers RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Virginia Cavaliers vs Syracuse Orange
81.0%Virginia Cavaliers
LOCKED Oct 10, 4:01 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Virginia Cavaliers; all four oriented probabilities average 81%.
15 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Virginia is favored by 13.5 points
- Grok: Virginia favored by 13.5 points on market line
- Claude: Market line UVA -13.5, a double-digit favorite role implying ~83-87% win probability
- GPT: DraftKings market line lists Virginia as a 13.5-point favorite
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Virginia Cavaliers · 83.0%
Virginia is a 13.5-point home favorite against Syracuse. A spread of this magnitude strongly implies a high probability of the home team winning outright, supported by their home-field advantage at Scott Stadium.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 10, 1:08 PM PDTGrok · Virginia Cavaliers · 78.0%
Virginia holds a superior 3-2 record versus Syracuse's 2-2, hosts the game at Scott Stadium, and enters as a 13.5-point favorite per the DraftKings market line. These structured facts supply a clear comparative edge for the home side despite the absence of rankings or efficiency metrics.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 10, 1:08 PM PDTClaude · Virginia Cavaliers · 84.0%
The DraftKings line of UVA -13.5 at home (Scott Stadium) is the dominant comparative signal. A 13.5-point favorite in college football historically wins roughly 83-87% of the time, and the total of 49.5 is middling, implying no extreme variance environment that would materially compress the favorite's edge. Records (3-2 vs 2-2) are near-neutral and neither team is ranked, so the market line carries nearly all the weight. I shade slightly to the conservative side of the historical conversion band to account for unavailable injury and efficiency data.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 10, 1:08 PM PDTGPT · Virginia Cavaliers · 79.0%
Virginia is the clear favorite on the supplied evidence. The strongest comparative signal is the market line of Virginia -13.5 at home, which typically corresponds to a substantial win probability edge. Virginia also has the better record (3-2 vs 2-2), though that is a weaker signal because schedule strength is unknown. No rankings are provided for either team, so the forecast rests mainly on the market expectation and home venue.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 10, 1:08 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Missing advanced team efficiency metrics
- No injury or depth-chart information provided
- Weather conditions are unknown
- No rankings supplied for either team
- Injuries, depth, and advanced stats unavailable
- Evidence limited to scoreboard records, venue, and line
- No injury or depth-chart information supplied
- No advanced efficiency, SP+, or FEI metrics available
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Probability unchanged
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
cbc08cbdcf49702a7397fb69f09f4b23e56eacd263f86df4b8d197b3c2a6794b - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
0017d3505b892849daa88422bdf276e328aceb0ec2c612a1e534a0f18711009b
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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Recorded outcome: Final
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