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Tennis · Oct 17, 12:10 AM PDT

Simona Waltert vs Anhelina Kalinina

68.8%Anhelina Kalinina
LOCKED Oct 16, 10:30 PM PDT

4/4 independent models select Anhelina Kalinina; all four oriented probabilities average 68.75%.

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A documented difference, its timing, and limits.

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  2. Check the forecast lock and market observation times.
  3. Record the difference and what it does not establish.
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FORECASTAnhelina Kalinina

Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.

RELIABILITY4/4 model reports

20 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.

MARKET VALUENot established

A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.

Why the models lean this way

These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.

  • Grok: Kalinina current rank 48 vs Waltert 110
  • Gemini: Kalinina's rank (48) is significantly higher than Waltert's (110).
  • Claude: Ranking gap: Kalinina 48 vs Waltert 110
  • GPT: Kalinina holds the superior current rank: No. 48 vs Waltert's No. 110.
Read all four model reports

Grok · Anhelina Kalinina · 67.0%

Anhelina Kalinina holds the superior current rank (48 vs 110), more ranking points (1107 vs 705), and stronger season singles record (39-20 vs 26-28). Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package. The estimate is bounded strictly to the provided ranking and win-loss facts for this WTA qualifying match.

xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 16, 5:03 PM PDT

Gemini · Anhelina Kalinina · 72.0%

Anhelina Kalinina is ranked 62 places higher than Simona Waltert (48 vs 110) and has a significantly better season win-loss record (39-20, 66.1% win rate) compared to Waltert (26-28, 48.1% win rate). Kalinina also holds a substantial advantage in ranking points (1107 to 705). Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.

google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 16, 5:03 PM PDT

Claude · Anhelina Kalinina · 67.0%

Kalinina is the clearly stronger player on the supplied facts: ranked 48 (1107 points) versus Waltert at 110 (705 points), and her season record (39-20, 66% wins) is much better than Waltert's sub-.500 mark (26-28, 48%). Waltert's ranking is also trending down (98 to 110) while Kalinina has nudged up (50 to 48). A roughly 60-spot ranking gap plus the win-rate differential supports a solid but not overwhelming favorite, since WTA matches between a top-50 and a top-110 player are routinely competitive and best-of-three variance is high. Surface-specific form, injuries/fitness, head-to-head history, travel/scheduling, and market odds are not available in the evidence package, so this estimate rests solely on rank and season win-loss data.

anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 16, 5:02 PM PDT

GPT · Anhelina Kalinina · 69.0%

Using only the supplied evidence, Anhelina Kalinina should be favored. She has the clearly better current rank (48 vs 110), more ranking points (1107 vs 705), and a much stronger 2026 singles record (39-20 vs 26-28). Waltert's previous rank was better than her current rank (98 to 110), while Kalinina has slightly improved (50 to 48), which modestly supports Kalinina as well. This is still a qualifying-round match between professional players, so the underdog retains a meaningful chance. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the evidence package and cannot be used.

openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 16, 5:02 PM PDT

What remains uncertain

  • No surface-specific form available
  • No head-to-head data supplied
  • No injury or travel information provided
  • No market odds or other external indicators
  • Surface-specific form is not supplied.
  • Head-to-head records are not supplied.
  • Injury reports and travel fatigue are not supplied.
  • Market odds are not supplied.

What to watch next

Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.

Open the event and source context →

What changed before the lock

  1. 0.8 percentage points lower for Anhelina Kalinina

    The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.

    Record hash306d714675447cb52b5a44d325e2b1d816392e919597bcab842b7eeab6291227
  2. First recorded forecast

    First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.

    Record hash573a370cb986724e8274dea2e30d58ad07b97b7868061d69a1de4d0432275e70

Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.

The saved method comparison

All probabilities below refer to Anhelina Kalinina. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 16, 10:30 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 16, 10:25 PM PDT.

Current TORK68.8%
Simple average68.8%
Calibrated average70.5%
Kalshi68.0%
Comparison record

Saved Oct 16, 10:30 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.

5816e9c356e5d15b11c81cd6b547a2d11d8f82bfb78971297901e5eb835a17e1
Inspect the methods and progress →

Available source context

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These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.

Recorded outcome: Anhelina Kalinina (UKR) bt Simona Waltert (SUI) 6-4 3-6 6-3

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