Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 15, 4:30 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTEast Carolina Pirates RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
UAB Blazers vs East Carolina Pirates
61.8%East Carolina Pirates
LOCKED Oct 15, 4:02 PM PDT4/4 independent models select East Carolina Pirates; all four oriented probabilities average 61.75%.
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- Read the original forecast before the outcome.
- Check the recorded official result and source context.
- Record a lesson without treating one result as proof.
16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Market line favors East Carolina by 4.5 points
- Claude: DraftKings line ECU -4.5 despite road venue (Protective Stadium, UAB home)
- Grok: ECU 3-2 record edges UAB 3-3
- GPT: DraftKings market line lists East Carolina -4.5, the strongest comparative signal in the package
Read all four model reports
Gemini · East Carolina Pirates · 65.0%
East Carolina is favored by 4.5 points on the road against UAB. A 4.5-point spread typically implies a win probability of around 65% for the favorite. Both teams have similar records (ECU 3-2, UAB 3-3), but the market clearly favors ECU despite UAB having home-field advantage.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 11, 11:22 PM PDTClaude · East Carolina Pirates · 63.0%
The only direct comparative signal is the DraftKings line, ECU -4.5, which is notable because the game is at Protective Stadium (UAB's home venue), implying ECU is roughly a 6-7 point better team on neutral footing. A 4.5-point favorite historically wins about 62-66% of the time. Records are close (UAB 3-3, ECU 3-2) and neither team is ranked, so the market line carries most of the weight. I shade to the lower end of the conversion range given the Thursday road spot and absence of injury or efficiency data.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 11, 11:22 PM PDTGrok · East Carolina Pirates · 58.0%
ECU enters with a 3-2 record versus UAB's 3-3. The DraftKings market line lists ECU as a 4.5-point road favorite at Protective Stadium, supplying the only comparative strength signal. No rankings are available for either side. The modest spread implies a narrow but clear edge for the Pirates in a neutral-efficiency environment.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 11, 11:22 PM PDTGPT · East Carolina Pirates · 61.0%
East Carolina is the evidence-based favorite. The immutable package provides three comparative signals: a better record for ECU (3-2 vs 3-3), a market line of ECU -4.5, and the game being played at UAB's home venue (Protective Stadium). The market line is the strongest signal and indicates East Carolina is viewed as the better team even after accounting for UAB's home-field advantage. UAB's home venue pulls the estimate down from a stronger ECU edge, but not enough to overcome the listed favorite status. With no rankings and no deeper team-performance or injury data, the best bounded estimate is a modest, not overwhelming, ECU win probability.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 11, 11:22 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No advanced statistics or efficiency metrics provided
- No injury reports or depth chart changes available
- No weather or specific matchup data
- No injury, QB availability, or depth-chart information supplied
- No advanced efficiency, SOS, or scoring-margin data
- No head-to-head or recent form detail beyond raw records
- Single market provider and a line snapshot three days before kickoff
- Home/away designation inferred from venue rather than stated explicitly
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Selection changed from UAB Blazers to East Carolina Pirates
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
45b9867819e42ca271069acd65e90f75bd5d3ef8259a86ef85a85e5b08799aa3 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
3e1d0f50fb97abde3a265afbfca0f170a54c0fb2117ba52f009c5bc07afec93c
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Final/OT
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