Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 15, 6:20 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTAnn Li RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK63.5% Simple average63.5% Calibrated average64.8% Kalshi68.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Janice Tjen vs Ann Li
63.5%Ann Li
LOCKED Oct 15, 5:00 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Ann Li; all four oriented probabilities average 63.5%.
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A documented difference, its timing, and limits.
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15 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Ann Li current rank 31 and 1648 points vs Janice Tjen rank 47 and 1125 points
- Gemini: Ann Li's higher ranking (31 vs 47)
- Claude: Ranking edge: Li No. 31 (1648 pts) vs Tjen No. 47 (1125 pts)
- GPT: Ann Li is ranked higher: No. 31 vs Janice Tjen at No. 47.
Read all four model reports
Grok · Ann Li · 62.0%
Ann Li holds the superior current rank (31 vs 47), higher ranking points (1648 vs 1125), and a stronger season singles record (25-24 vs 14-26). These supplied facts indicate Ann Li as the stronger player on paper for this match-winner forecast.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 14, 5:02 PM PDTGemini · Ann Li · 68.0%
Ann Li holds a higher ranking (31 compared to 47) and has accumulated more ranking points (1648 to 1125). Furthermore, Li has a significantly better season win-loss record (25-24) compared to Tjen's struggling record (14-26), making Li the clear favorite based on the provided metrics.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 14, 5:02 PM PDTClaude · Ann Li · 62.0%
Only two evidence dimensions are usable: current ranking and season singles win-loss. Ann Li is ranked 31 with 1648 points versus Janice Tjen at 47 with 1125 points, a modest but real ~16-place gap. Li's 2026 record (25-24, .510) is also considerably stronger than Tjen's 14-26 (.350), reinforcing a lean toward Li. Neither player has a title this season and both are trending roughly flat in ranking (Li 30 to 31; Tjen 49 to 47, slight improvement). Both have reached Round 3 in Wuhan, so both carry some current match wins. Surface-specific form, injuries/fitness, head-to-head history, travel/scheduling, and market odds are all unavailable, which caps confidence and keeps the estimate near a rank-and-record baseline rather than a strong edge.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 14, 5:02 PM PDTGPT · Ann Li · 62.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, Ann Li has the stronger baseline profile for a match-winner forecast: a better current ranking (31 vs 47), more ranking points (1648 vs 1125), and a stronger season record in both total wins (25 vs 14) and win rate (25-24, about 51%, vs 14-26, about 35%). Those indicators point to Li as the more likely winner. Because the evidence package explicitly does not provide surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, or market odds, the estimate should remain moderate rather than aggressive.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 14, 5:02 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable
- Evidence limited to current ESPN ranking and season singles record only
- Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
- No surface-specific (hard-court) form supplied
- No injury, fitness, or retirement information
- No head-to-head record available
- No travel, rest days, or scheduling context
- No market odds or implied probabilities provided
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Probability unchanged
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
8cb433f0559a1318335a6c75caeea78c427856a1fd3d4cc925bbf47791359deb - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
d9538cfbb8d207311f3e69bdf70d7bac2d80eed522e32151293b084b83b08bfa
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Ann Li. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 15, 5:00 AM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 15, 4:55 AM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 15, 5:04 AM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
9d8f673d4d8a733547ebcd591e088914b195b549ae04a897e8b1f5db08ccb361Available source context
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These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Ann Li (USA) bt Janice Tjen (INA) 6-1 7-6 (7-1)
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