College Football · Oct 17, 4:00 PM PDT

North Dakota State Bison vs Nevada Wolf Pack

84.0%North Dakota State Bison

NOT LOCKED

4/4 independent models select North Dakota State Bison; all four oriented probabilities average 84%.

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FORECASTNorth Dakota State Bison

Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.

RELIABILITY4/4 model reports

16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.

MARKET VALUENot established

A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.

Why the models lean this way

These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.

Gemini: NDSU is favored by 14.5 points
Claude: Market line NDSU -14.5 implies a strong favorite (~85-88% win equity)
Grok: NDSU 5-1 record vs Nevada 2-3 record
GPT: Market line favors North Dakota State by 14.5 points

Read all four model reports

Gemini · North Dakota State Bison · 87.0%

North Dakota State is a 14.5-point home favorite against Nevada. NDSU has a strong 5-1 record compared to Nevada's 2-3, and the significant point spread implies a high probability of an outright win for the Bison.

google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 17, 9:08 AM PDT

Claude · North Dakota State Bison · 86.0%

DraftKings lists NDSU as a 14.5-point home favorite at the Fargodome, a double-digit line that historically converts to roughly an 85-88% straight-up win probability. Supporting signals align: NDSU is 5-1 while Nevada is 2-3, and NDSU holds home-field advantage in a notoriously tough venue. A total of 42.5 suggests a lower-scoring game, which modestly reduces variance and slightly favors the stronger favorite covering the win outright. No ranking data differentiates the teams, but record and market evidence point the same direction.

anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 17, 9:08 AM PDT

Grok · North Dakota State Bison · 82.0%

NDSU enters at 5-1 while Nevada is 2-3. The DraftKings market line lists NDSU as a 14.5-point home favorite in the Fargodome. These structured facts supply a clear comparative signal favoring NDSU. No rankings are supplied for either side.

xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 17, 9:08 AM PDT

GPT · North Dakota State Bison · 81.0%

North Dakota State has the stronger record (5-1 vs 2-3), is playing at the Fargodome, and is favored by a large market spread of -14.5. Among the supplied facts, the market line is the strongest comparative signal and indicates NDSU is substantially more likely to win than Nevada. The records and home venue point the same direction. With no rankings supplied and no injury or efficiency data available in the evidence package, the estimate should remain bounded rather than extreme.

openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 17, 9:08 AM PDT

What remains uncertain

No advanced efficiency metrics available
No injury or depth chart information provided
No injury, QB availability, or depth-chart information supplied
No advanced efficiency metrics, strength of schedule, or common opponents
No rankings provided for either team
Opponent quality behind each record is unknown
Single market provider; no line-movement history or closing line available
Weather and any late scratches unknown as of data_current_at

What to watch next

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What changed before the lock

Oct 17, 9:08 AM PDT · house adjudication completedFirst recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
f7072fb3c350b3c492f60eaa68e6d79c248139b483eb7a76d62865c44bbd0727

Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.

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Available source context

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