Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 17, 9:00 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTJames Madison Dukes RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
James Madison Dukes vs Georgia State Panthers
75.6%James Madison Dukes
LOCKED Oct 17, 8:32 AM PDT4/4 independent models select James Madison Dukes; all four oriented probabilities average 75.63%.
Check the evidence
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- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
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16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: DraftKings spread of JMU -8.5 implies roughly a 77% favorite win probability
- Gemini: JMU is undefeated at 6-0
- Grok: JMU 6-0 record vs Georgia State 4-1 record
- GPT: James Madison is 6-0 compared with Georgia State at 4-1.
Read all four model reports
Claude · James Madison Dukes · 78.0%
DraftKings lists James Madison at -8.5 at home in Bridgeforth Stadium, which historically converts to roughly a 76-80% straight-up win probability for the favorite. The records reinforce this: JMU is undefeated at 6-0 while Georgia State is 4-1, and neither team carries a national ranking that would complicate the read. The market line is the single most informative signal available and already embeds known roster and form information as of the data timestamp, so I anchor near its implied value with a slight trim for the non-trivial upset rate of mid-single-digit-to-nine-point favorites in Sun Belt conference play.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 17, 6:53 AM PDTGemini · James Madison Dukes · 75.5%
James Madison is an undefeated 6-0 team playing at home and is favored by 8.5 points against a 4-1 Georgia State team. The market spread of -8.5 implies a win probability of roughly 75% for the Dukes.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 17, 6:53 AM PDTGrok · James Madison Dukes · 74.0%
James Madison enters at 6-0 while Georgia State is 4-1. The game is at Bridgeforth Stadium and DraftKings lists JMU as an 8.5-point favorite. These three signals (undefeated record, home venue, double-digit spread) converge on a clear favorite. No rankings are supplied and the evidence package explicitly notes the absence of injuries or efficiency metrics, which caps precision but does not erase the directional signal.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 17, 6:53 AM PDTGPT · James Madison Dukes · 75.0%
James Madison has the stronger evidence package: an undefeated 6-0 record versus Georgia State’s 4-1 mark, home field at Bridgeforth Stadium, and a supplied market line of JMU -8.5. In college football, a spread of this size generally indicates a meaningful but not overwhelming edge for the favorite. With no rankings provided and no injury or efficiency data available, the market line is the strongest comparative signal, and it supports James Madison as a clear favorite rather than a near-certainty.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 17, 6:53 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No injury, suspension, or depth-chart information supplied
- No advanced efficiency, strength-of-schedule, or opponent-quality data for either record
- Records do not indicate margin of victory or quality of wins
- Single sportsbook line with no line-movement history
- No weather or travel detail for the noon kickoff
- No advanced efficiency metrics provided
- No injury reports or depth chart changes available
- Weather conditions not specified
What to watch next
Wait for the official result. The locked forecast stays unchanged.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 2.9 percentage points higher for James Madison Dukes
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
13de0a0c72c9533092b165e00205dfbbdf33bf040c4e30bf8fa3f6c2306eb330 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
269e1a90dc7d858e7ef43c437cbc00aa806c253dbcc07777cb6648dbdfd0dd4f
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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