Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 17, 12:30 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTNikoloz Basilashvili RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK65.5% Simple average65.5% Calibrated average66.9% Kalshi60.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Taro Daniel
65.5%Nikoloz Basilashvili
LOCKED Oct 17, 12:00 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Nikoloz Basilashvili; all four oriented probabilities average 65.5%.
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A documented difference, its timing, and limits.
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20 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Nikoloz Basilashvili has an ATP rank of 124.
- Grok: Basilashvili ATP rank 124 vs Daniel unranked
- Claude: Basilashvili has an explicit current rank (124) and 491 ranking points; Daniel has none supplied
- GPT: Basilashvili has the only explicit current ranking in the evidence: No. 124.
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Nikoloz Basilashvili · 65.0%
Nikoloz Basilashvili holds an established ATP rank of 124 and has significantly more match experience this season with a 7-9 record. Taro Daniel lacks a current rank in the provided data and has only played three matches (1-2 record). Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable, limiting confidence.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 16, 5:03 PM PDTGrok · Nikoloz Basilashvili · 68.0%
Basilashvili holds an explicit ATP rank of 124 with 491 ranking points and a 7-9 season singles record, while Daniel has null rank, null points, and only a 1-2 record. This supplies a clear evidence-based edge for Basilashvili. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 16, 5:03 PM PDTClaude · Nikoloz Basilashvili · 61.0%
Only two evidence anchors are usable: Basilashvili holds an explicit current ATP rank of 124 (491 points, previous 121) with a 7-9 season singles record, while Taro Daniel has no supplied ranking or points and just a 1-2 season record over a very small sample. The ranked player with a materially larger match sample and a measurable points base gets a modest edge in a qualifying first round, but the absence of a rank for Daniel is an evidence gap rather than proof of a large gap in level, and his 3-match sample carries almost no signal. Surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head history, travel/scheduling, and market odds are all explicitly unavailable in this package, so the estimate stays close to the coin-flip baseline for a tour-level qualifying match.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 16, 5:03 PM PDTGPT · Nikoloz Basilashvili · 68.0%
Nikoloz Basilashvili is the stronger evidence-based choice from the supplied package. The usable facts are limited to current ranking and 2026 season singles record. Basilashvili has an explicit ATP rank of No. 124 with a 7-9 season record, while Taro Daniel has a 1-2 season record and no current rank supplied in the evidence. That gives Basilashvili the clearer documented standing and the larger sample of current-season match results. His season win rate is still below .500, so this should not be treated as overwhelming, but on the available evidence he deserves to be favored. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the evidence package.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 16, 5:02 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface-specific form is unavailable.
- Injuries are unavailable.
- Head-to-head records are unavailable.
- Travel and fatigue factors are unavailable.
- Market odds are unavailable.
- No surface-specific form supplied
- No head-to-head data supplied
- No injury information supplied
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Probability unchanged
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
34f42a9240525cda684712a000bcb888bff58514a9516e2e5095102239a768b8 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
777ed811ff7179df1002a6ba497df0a530e486ee71e4fb6e93881594d96e7afc
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Nikoloz Basilashvili. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 17, 12:00 AM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 16, 11:55 PM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 17, 12:00 AM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
ad6f499c172b0d9f8ac5d6e50ef9cf1037efbbf44ca85394f9351592d786c023Available source context
site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Nikoloz Basilashvili (GEO) bt Taro Daniel (JPN) 6-2 7-5
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