Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Oct 4, 10:00 AM PDT FORECASTGreen Bay Packers RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK59.0% Simple average59.0% Calibrated average59.8% Kalshi59.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
59.0%Green Bay Packers
LOCKED Oct 4, 9:30 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Green Bay Packers; all four oriented probabilities average 59%.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Market line DraftKings GB -3, making Green Bay the favorite despite playing on the road
- Grok: GB record 1-2 vs TB record 0-3
- Gemini: Green Bay is favored by 3 points on the road.
- GPT: DraftKings market line lists Green Bay -3, indicating the Packers are favored despite being on the road.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Green Bay Packers · 60.0%
DraftKings lists Green Bay at -3 on the road, which is a meaningful market signal: a team favored by a field goal away from home is typically rated roughly 5-6 points better on a neutral field. Records support the same direction, with Green Bay 1-2 and Tampa Bay winless at 0-3. The low posted total of 38.5 implies a lower-scoring game, which modestly compresses the favorite's edge by increasing single-score variance, so I shade the implied road-favorite win probability toward the low 60s rather than higher. No injury or quarterback-status information is supplied for either side, and no weather data is available, so the estimate rests mainly on the line and the records.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 3, 11:00 AM PDTGrok · Green Bay Packers · 57.0%
GB enters at 1-2 while TB is 0-3; the DraftKings market line lists GB as a 3-point road favorite, indicating the market views Green Bay as the stronger side despite the venue. No other comparative team metrics are supplied.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 3, 11:00 AM PDTGemini · Green Bay Packers · 60.0%
The Green Bay Packers are 3-point road favorites against the winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers. A 3-point spread typically implies a win probability of around 60%, and Green Bay's slightly better early-season record supports them as the likely winner despite being the away team.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 3, 11:00 AM PDTGPT · Green Bay Packers · 59.0%
Green Bay has the stronger point-in-time evidence package. The Packers are 1-2 versus Tampa Bay at 0-3, and the supplied market line lists Green Bay -3 on the road. A road favorite by a field goal is meaningful comparative evidence and outweighs the modest home-field edge for Tampa Bay. With no usable injury or quarterback-status detail beyond empty lists, the forecast should stay conservative rather than aggressive. Taken together, the records and especially the market spread support Green Bay as the likelier winner, but not by an extreme margin.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 3, 11:00 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Injury lists are empty for both teams, so availability of key players including quarterbacks is unknown
- No moneyline prices provided; probability derived from the spread rather than direct market odds
- Weather is null for an early-October outdoor game in Tampa
- Only win-loss records given, with no point differential, strength of schedule, or efficiency data
- Line is a single-book snapshot dated about a day before kickoff and could move
- No team efficiency or advanced stats provided
- Injury reports listed as empty and may be incomplete
- Weather data unavailable
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 2.5 percentage points lower for Green Bay Packers
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
941225de8c4a81f76779e3f2b638423336fc3933add28a153d8783a37783575d - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
a701e2da611055c0f52b3a2bda53acc56228d2bd8b7f2a4a18f6e770efac5418
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Green Bay Packers. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 4, 9:30 AM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 4, 9:25 AM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 4, 9:34 AM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
ba838e56160d45de9d960d46d9399bd835fb9ab148dfad53e66f94b6cad00b9dAvailable source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Green Bay Packers 17, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14
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