Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Oct 11, 6:30 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTJacksonville Jaguars RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK72.3% Simple average72.3% Calibrated average74.3% Kalshi77.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars
72.3%Jacksonville Jaguars
LOCKED Oct 11, 6:00 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Jacksonville Jaguars; all four oriented probabilities average 72.25%.
Check the evidence
The most important gap and your next source check.
- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Jacksonville is favored by 7.5 points.
- Claude: DraftKings line JAX -7.5 implies roughly a 75% home win probability
- GPT: DraftKings spread lists Jacksonville -7.5, a strong indicator of outright win probability
- Grok: JAX 3-1 record vs PHI 2-2 record
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Jacksonville Jaguars · 77.0%
Jacksonville is favored by 7.5 points at a neutral site in London, where they have extensive experience playing. A 7.5-point spread typically translates to a win probability of approximately 76-78%.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 8, 7:10 AM PDTClaude · Jacksonville Jaguars · 74.0%
The only quantitative market signal supplied is DraftKings JAX -7.5 with a low total (41.5). A 7.5-point favorite with a sub-42 total historically converts to roughly a 74-78% win probability, and the low total slightly compresses variance in favor of the favorite. Supporting evidence aligns directionally: Jacksonville enters 3-1 versus Philadelphia at 2-2, and Jacksonville is the designated home team in the London game, though the Tottenham venue is functionally neutral and mutes typical home-field edge. No injury or quarterback information is provided for either side, so I stay near the market-implied figure rather than adjusting away from it.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 8, 7:10 AM PDTGPT · Jacksonville Jaguars · 72.0%
Jacksonville is the stronger side in the supplied evidence. The Jaguars are 3-1 versus Philadelphia at 2-2, and the only market evidence provided is DraftKings listing Jacksonville -7.5 on a neutral-site game in London. A spread of -7.5 is strong directional evidence that Jacksonville is materially more likely to win outright. The neutral venue slightly reduces any normal home-field interpretation from the listed home team, but it does not outweigh the market signal. With no injury or quarterback detail available beyond empty lists, the estimate should stay bounded rather than extreme, but Jacksonville is still the clear favorite from this package.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 8, 7:10 AM PDTGrok · Jacksonville Jaguars · 66.0%
Jaguars enter at 3-1 while Eagles are 2-2. The market line lists JAX as a 7.5-point home favorite in London, implying a substantial edge. Early-season records and the spread together point to Jacksonville as the more likely winner, though the neutral-site venue and lack of team-specific metrics limit precision.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 8, 7:10 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No moneyline odds provided, requiring estimation from the spread.
- No injury reports available.
- Weather conditions are unknown.
- No moneyline prices supplied; probability derived from spread conversion only
- Both injury lists are empty, which likely reflects missing data rather than full health
- No quarterback status, roster, or depth-chart detail provided
- No weather data (indoor/retractable venue reduces relevance)
- No efficiency metrics, strength of schedule, or scoring margins to validate records
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
8f2adcb0032b7afe1277e6025ace990d3200dd157eda80edf0e81fd847582381 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
39fc5c293429a42eef29eb2245905861177b7b951e8504b284d891edaa056ee2
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Jacksonville Jaguars. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 11, 6:00 AM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 11, 5:55 AM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 11, 6:04 AM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
5b13bdc28fc5609c0479b1a8689f52b0e0bd1b6c2bc870f13b6cf0fd0ecb9d4dAvailable source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Philadelphia Eagles 17, Jacksonville Jaguars 19
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