Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Oct 11, 10:00 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTNew England Patriots RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK59.0% Simple average59.0% Calibrated average59.8% Kalshi63.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots
59.0%New England Patriots
LOCKED Oct 11, 9:30 AM PDT4/4 independent models select New England Patriots; all four oriented probabilities average 59%.
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17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: NE home game at Gillette Stadium
- Claude: Market line NE -3.5 implies roughly 58-62% home win probability
- Gemini: New England is favored by 3.5 points.
- GPT: DraftKings market line lists New England -3.5
Read all four model reports
Grok · New England Patriots · 55.0%
NE hosts the game at Gillette Stadium and is favored by 3.5 points on the DraftKings market line. LV enters with the superior 3-1 record versus NE's 2-2, but the home-field edge and betting market together produce a modest probability tilt toward the Patriots. No quarterback, injury, or advanced metric data is supplied, so the edge remains narrow and evidence-bounded.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 4, 4:50 PM PDTClaude · New England Patriots · 60.0%
The only direct comparative signal is the DraftKings line of NE -3.5 at home with a 45.5 total. A 3.5-point home favorite historically converts to roughly a 58-62% win probability. The records (LV 3-1 vs NE 2-2) nominally favor Las Vegas, but the market already incorporates record, roster, and situational context and still installs New England as the favorite, implying the market views the Patriots as the stronger team on a neutral basis plus home-field value. I weight the line far more heavily than a four-game record sample, settling near 60% for New England.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 4, 4:50 PM PDTGemini · New England Patriots · 63.0%
The New England Patriots are favored by 3.5 points at home. A -3.5 point spread typically implies a win probability of approximately 63% in the NFL, accounting for the home-field advantage despite the Raiders' slightly better early-season record.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 4, 4:50 PM PDTGPT · New England Patriots · 58.0%
The strongest comparative evidence in the package is the market spread, with New England favored by 3.5 points at home. That implies the Patriots are more likely than not to win despite Las Vegas having the better early record (3-1 vs 2-2). Home field at Gillette Stadium supports New England, and in NFL pricing a favorite of this size is typically a modest but clear win favorite rather than a near toss-up. The Raiders’ better record prevents a stronger lean, but the evidence package most directly points to New England as the likelier winner.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 4, 4:50 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No injury or quarterback status provided
- No advanced team metrics or recent form details
- Injury reports noted as potentially incomplete
- Market line lacks moneyline odds
- No moneyline prices provided, so spread-to-probability conversion is an approximation
- Injury lists are empty for both teams and likely incomplete rather than genuinely clean
- No quarterback status or depth-chart detail supplied
- No weather data for an October outdoor New England game
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 13.5 percentage points lower for New England Patriots
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
ba0aaaf5ab4efa54bfc2a15fe4d139ad870f71c6406f26aa2ea88b1b6c875c26 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
bdad6e0d25996d15d29c3f0cb6158e350d8e57a2f6b58a7210e5538b127fe7e3
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to New England Patriots. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 11, 9:30 AM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 11, 9:25 AM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 11, 9:34 AM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
d63338121b2922c24ca4a323cb1979c49c53ab0d0502202166737d4e83940220Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Las Vegas Raiders 17, New England Patriots 45
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