Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 10, 7:30 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTArizona State Sun Devils RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Arizona State Sun Devils vs Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
89.5%Arizona State Sun Devils
LOCKED Oct 10, 7:01 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Arizona State Sun Devils; all four oriented probabilities average 89.5%.
Check the evidence
The most important gap and your next source check.
- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Arizona State is favored by 21 points
- Claude: Market line ASU -21, implying roughly 90-94% moneyline win probability
- Grok: ASU 2-2 record vs Hawai'i 1-4 record
- GPT: DraftKings market line lists Arizona State as a 21-point favorite, the strongest signal in the evidence package
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Arizona State Sun Devils · 94.0%
Arizona State is a heavy 21-point home favorite against a struggling 1-4 Hawai'i team. A spread of this magnitude in college football typically translates to a win probability well over 90%.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 10, 2:08 PM PDTClaude · Arizona State Sun Devils · 92.0%
DraftKings lists Arizona State at -21 playing at Mountain America Stadium (their home venue), a large favorite margin that historically converts to roughly a 90-94% straight-up win rate. Supporting evidence aligns: ASU is 2-2 while Hawai'i is 1-4, and neither team is ranked. The market line is the strongest single signal and is consistent with the record differential and home-field advantage, so I estimate ~92% for Arizona State.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 10, 2:08 PM PDTGrok · Arizona State Sun Devils · 85.0%
Arizona State enters at 2-2 while Hawai'i is 1-4. The market line lists ASU as a 21-point home favorite at Mountain America Stadium, indicating a substantial talent and situational edge. No rankings are supplied for either side. The large spread and home venue together imply a high win probability for the Sun Devils.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 10, 2:08 PM PDTGPT · Arizona State Sun Devils · 87.0%
Arizona State is the clear favorite on the supplied evidence. The immutable package gives ASU the better record (2-2 vs 1-4), home field at Mountain America Stadium, and most importantly a very large market signal of ASU -21 from DraftKings. In college football, a spread of that size typically implies a strong win expectation for the favorite. With no rankings provided and no deeper roster or efficiency data allowed, the market line is the strongest comparative signal here, supported by the better record and home venue. That supports Arizona State as the likelier winner by a wide margin, though not with absolute certainty.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 10, 2:08 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Missing advanced team efficiency metrics
- No injury reports or depth chart changes provided
- Weather conditions are unknown
- No injury, QB status, or depth-chart information supplied
- No advanced efficiency, strength-of-schedule, or opponent-quality data
- No line movement history or opening line to gauge market confidence
- Event title lists Hawai'i as nominal host while venue is ASU's stadium, a minor inconsistency
- Records alone do not reveal margin-of-victory quality
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 1.3 percentage points higher for Arizona State Sun Devils
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
c383b56b02ea2c5720fbd1f49c0381316eabf110d2a1e2963129cdaac88a9f83 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
9d8c8507eba59be5e3765aa4ed8a7c3122eb029421f729f4fceebb300de1b754
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Final
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