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Tennis · Oct 13, 8:05 PM PDT

Maja Chwalinska vs Marie Bouzkova

55.8%Maja Chwalinska
LOCKED Oct 13, 7:30 PM PDT

4/4 independent models select Maja Chwalinska; all four oriented probabilities average 55.75%.

YOUR RESEARCH TASK

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A documented difference, its timing, and limits.

  1. Confirm every probability refers to the same outcome.
  2. Check the forecast lock and market observation times.
  3. Record the difference and what it does not establish.
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FORECASTMaja Chwalinska

Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.

RELIABILITY4/4 model reports

22 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.

MARKET VALUENot established

A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.

Why the models lean this way

These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.

  • Grok: Chwalinska current rank 22 vs Bouzkova rank 28
  • Gemini: Chwalinska is ranked 6 spots higher (22 vs 28).
  • GPT: Chwalinska holds the better current rank: 22 vs 28.
  • Claude: Ranking edge: Chwalinska No. 22 vs Bouzkova No. 28
Read all four model reports

Grok · Maja Chwalinska · 57.0%

Maja Chwalinska holds the superior current rank (22 vs 28), higher ranking points (2043 vs 1763), and a stronger season singles record (33-17 vs 31-20). These supplied facts indicate a modest edge for Chwalinska. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.

xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 13, 5:01 PM PDT

Gemini · Maja Chwalinska · 56.0%

Maja Chwalinska holds a slight advantage in both ranking (22 vs 28) and season win percentage (66.0% vs 60.8%). However, Marie Bouzkova has won two titles this season compared to Chwalinska's zero, indicating a high peak level. The match is expected to be closely contested, but Chwalinska's overall consistency gives her a narrow edge. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.

google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 13, 5:01 PM PDT

GPT · Maja Chwalinska · 54.0%

Using only the supplied evidence, Maja Chwalinska gets a narrow edge. She is ranked higher than Marie Bouzkova (No. 22 vs No. 28), has more ranking points (2043 vs 1763), and has a slightly better 2026 singles record (33-17, .660 win rate, vs 31-20, .608 win rate). Those indicators collectively favor Chwalinska, but only modestly because the gap is not large and Bouzkova has won more singles titles this season (2 vs 0), which tempers the ranking/record advantage. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the evidence package, so the estimate should remain close to a toss-up rather than a strong lean.

openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 13, 5:01 PM PDT

Claude · Maja Chwalinska · 56.0%

Only ranking and season win-loss data are supplied. Chwalinska is ranked 22 (2043 points) versus Bouzkova at 28 (1763 points), a modest six-place and ~280-point edge, and holds a slightly better season record (33-17, 66.0%) than Bouzkova (31-20, 60.8%). Both players slipped one ranking spot week-over-week, so trajectory is neutral. These gaps are small by WTA standards and translate into only a slight favorite status; Bouzkova's two titles this season versus Chwalinska's zero argues for even more caution. Surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head history, travel/fatigue, and market odds are not available in the evidence package, which caps confidence near a coin flip.

anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 13, 5:01 PM PDT

What remains uncertain

  • Surface form unavailable
  • Injuries unavailable
  • Head-to-head unavailable
  • Travel unavailable
  • Market odds unavailable
  • Evidence limited to current rank and season singles record only
  • Surface-specific form is not supplied.
  • Head-to-head records are unavailable.

What to watch next

Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.

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What changed before the lock

  1. Probability unchanged

    The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.

    Record hash6b047cc1fad61b807e33055c9cc67b540072166a7e0a8f2aea8204b9055f9c6a
  2. First recorded forecast

    First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.

    Record hash227a870f92f699f9bb5bb326ad44958cb930441ba6a481a6ed24f92f85d00335

Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.

The saved method comparison

All probabilities below refer to Maja Chwalinska. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 13, 7:30 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 13, 7:25 PM PDT.

Current TORK55.8%
Simple average55.8%
Calibrated average56.3%
Kalshi34.0%
Comparison record

Saved Oct 13, 7:34 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.

1d8bbdfc3142de8e07e3510a6ad738881867db7c5edb4a80fc6513c8898b3454
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Available source context

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These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.

Recorded outcome: (16) Maja Chwalinska (POL) bt Marie Bouzkova (CZE) 1-6 6-1 6-1

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