Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsMLB · Sep 13, 10:37 AM PDT FORECASTToronto Blue Jays RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays
61.0%Toronto Blue Jays
LOCKED Sep 13, 9:46 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Toronto Blue Jays; all four oriented probabilities average 61%.
18 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Dylan Cease's elite 2.40 ERA and 0.90 recent WHIP
- Claude: Cease (2.40 ERA / 1.04 WHIP, 0.90 recent WHIP) markedly outclasses Rogers (4.15 ERA / 1.21 WHIP)
- Grok: Dylan Cease's superior season and recent pitching metrics versus Trevor Rogers
- GPT: Dylan Cease holds a major starting-pitcher advantage over Trevor Rogers in both season and recent-30-day ERA/WHIP.
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Toronto Blue Jays · 63.0%
The Toronto Blue Jays hold a significant starting pitching advantage with Dylan Cease, who boasts an elite 2.40 season ERA and a 0.90 WHIP over his last 30 days. This starkly contrasts with Trevor Rogers' 4.15 season ERA. The pitcher-friendly park factor of 0.926 further amplifies Cease's edge. Although Baltimore has shown better offensive output over the last 7 days and has higher bullpen availability, Toronto's superior 30-day run differential and dominant starting pitching make them the clear favorite.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 13, 8:00 AM PDTClaude · Toronto Blue Jays · 60.0%
Toronto gets the clear starting-pitching edge: Dylan Cease (2.40 ERA, 1.04 WHIP season; 2.40/0.90 over the last 30 days) versus Trevor Rogers (4.15 ERA, 1.21 WHIP; 3.94/1.09 recent). Toronto also owns the better record (85-84 vs 81-89) and the better 30-day run differential (+0.89 vs +0.29 per game), plus home-field advantage in a park that slightly suppresses runs (0.926 factor), which tends to amplify the value of the superior starter. Offsetting factors keep this from being a large edge: Baltimore's bats have been hotter over the last week (5.17 R/G vs Toronto's 3.50) and Baltimore's bullpen availability is notably better (48 vs 33), so a short Cease outing could tilt late innings toward the Orioles. Net: a moderate lean to Toronto, roughly 60%.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 13, 8:00 AM PDTGrok · Toronto Blue Jays · 57.0%
Toronto hosts with the stronger starter in Dylan Cease (2.40 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, recent 2.40/0.90) against Trevor Rogers (4.15/1.21). Blue Jays hold a better record (85-84 vs 81-89) and stronger 30-game run differential (+0.885 vs +0.286). Offense rates are comparable and the park suppresses runs slightly. Lineups are confirmed with minor changes.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 13, 8:00 AM PDTGPT · Toronto Blue Jays · 64.0%
Toronto has the clearest edge on the mound. Dylan Cease's season and recent-30-day numbers (2.40 ERA, 1.04 WHIP; recent 2.40 ERA, 0.90 WHIP) are substantially better than Trevor Rogers' marks (4.15 ERA, 1.21 WHIP; recent 3.94 ERA, 1.09 WHIP). Baltimore has been the hotter offense over the last week, scoring 5.167 runs per game versus Toronto's 3.5, but over the last 30 days the offenses are very similar and Toronto has the better 30-day run differential. The Blue Jays also have the better overall record and home field. Baltimore's bullpen availability appears better, which narrows the gap somewhat, but the starting pitching advantage is the most decisive evidence in the package.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 13, 8:00 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Bullpen availability metrics do not account for the quality or specific roles of the available relievers.
- Lineup changes are noted, but the specific players missing or returning are not detailed, obscuring the true offensive impact.
- Weather run factor is neutral, but specific wind or temperature conditions are not provided.
- Probable pitchers can be scratched; starter matchup is the dominant input and is not fully certain until first pitch
- Lineup status is listed as confirmed but changes can still occur; no player-level hitting data supplied
- No bullpen quality data, only an availability index whose scale is undefined
- Small samples: 6-game and ~26-28 game windows are noisy
- No head-to-head, travel, rest, or injury information provided
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
50b69d237fff979fb9da0ee15ee197633b7dbfc1f9f2ae4b3167b603ce9ab594 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
ef8d7ee6e7f1dc7a35f0c21731ef8421d507310d3f166d7db1f14d3414dc0a5d
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
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Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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Recorded outcome: Baltimore Orioles 1, Toronto Blue Jays 8
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