Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 18, 12:30 AM PDT FORECASTRoman Safiullin RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Ilia Simakin vs Roman Safiullin
84.8%Roman Safiullin
NOT LOCKED4/4 independent models select Roman Safiullin; all four oriented probabilities average 84.75%.
18 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Roman Safiullin's ATP ranking of 79
- Claude: Safiullin holds an explicit ATP rank of 79 with 744 points; Simakin has no rank listed
- Grok: Safiullin ATP rank 79 and 744 points vs Simakin null rank
- GPT: Roman Safiullin has the only explicit current rank in the package: ATP No. 79.
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Roman Safiullin · 88.0%
Roman Safiullin is an established top 100 player (ranked 79th) with a 7-7 record on the ATP tour this season. Ilia Simakin is unranked and has not recorded any ATP-level matches this season. The significant disparity in ranking and top-level experience strongly favors Safiullin.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 17, 5:35 AM PDTClaude · Roman Safiullin · 85.0%
Safiullin is an established ATP tour player with an explicit current ranking of No. 79 (up from 84), 744 ranking points, and a .500 season record (7-7) at tour level. Simakin has no ranking listed and a 0-0 tour-level singles record, consistent with a low-ranked/unranked qualifier or wildcard-level entrant with no main-tour results. That ranking and experience gap is the dominant signal in a best-of-three qualifying final. Surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head history, travel/fatigue, and market odds are all unavailable in the evidence package, so the estimate rests solely on ranking and season win-loss data. The gap is capped below 90% because a 0-0 record carries no information about the underdog's actual level, and indoor hard-court qualifying produces frequent upsets.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 17, 5:35 AM PDTGrok · Roman Safiullin · 82.0%
Roman Safiullin holds an ATP rank of 79 with a 7-7 season singles record and 744 ranking points. Ilia Simakin has null rank, null points, and a 0-0 record. This is the only supplied evidence. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 17, 5:35 AM PDTGPT · Roman Safiullin · 84.0%
Roman Safiullin is the clear evidence-based favorite from the supplied package. The usable facts show Safiullin with an explicit current ATP rank of 79 and a 2026 singles record of 7-7, while Ilia Simakin is listed with no current rank and a 0-0 singles record in the supplied ATP season data. In a qualifying final at an ATP event, an established top-100 player with recorded tour-level activity is materially more likely to beat an opponent whose supplied record contains no wins, losses, or ranking information. Because the evidence package is intentionally narrow, this estimate should be treated as bounded by ranking/record only. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable here, so they cannot adjust the estimate.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 17, 5:35 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable
- Simakin's performance on lower-tier tours (Challenger/ITF) is not provided
- No surface-specific (indoor hard) form supplied
- No injury or fitness information available
- No head-to-head record provided
- No travel, rest, or scheduling data
- No market odds or implied probabilities available
- Simakin's 0-0 record is uninformative about his true level (no ranking or ITF/Challenger data)
What to watch next
Wait for all required evidence and the pre-event lock. This view is not final.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
61eb19bdd23967d771cbb44d718813fa617ac377fa291f3999c0455da0e10cbf
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
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